3 MLB Best Bets for Sunday 7/28/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers

Marlins +1.5 (-120)

The Miami Marlins, shockingly, have a few things going in their favor to keep today's game close -- if not win it.

At the top, starting pitcher Kyle Tyler has shown encouraging signs in his first 20.1 innings of 2024, including a solid average exit velocity (87.5) and hefty rate of groundballs (55.0%).

He'll look to keep the Milwaukee Brewers in check, and Milwaukee has struggled in his right-handed split recently. They've posted a measly 89 wRC+, .661 OPS, and 24.1% strikeout rate in the past 30 days.

On the other side of the dish, the Fish have posted a 107 wRC+ against righties with a significant improved strikeout rate (24.1%) in this period. This could be providing a bit of value when compared to their season-long numbers.

Tobias Myers is also no shutdown ace. His 3.14 ERA has a 3.95 expected ERA (xERA) behind it with below-average results in expected batting average allowed (.247 xBA) and average exit velocity (89.6).

Marlins ML (+176) could also be worth a look given these hidden advantages.

Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels

Under 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (+104)

These are two bottom-10 bullpens (by xFIP) over the past 30 days, so this game could always go bonkers in the late stages. However, both starters are primed to succeed, so we'll target a first-five-inning under.

Stunningly, that includes Osvaldo Bido of the Oakland Athletics, who has broken out as a starter for the A's. He's coming off five innings of one-run ball against the Houston Astros where he reached a season-high 70 pitches, and there's no doubting his effectiveness with that length. He's posted a stellar 2.91 xERA, .174 xBA, and 30.0% hard-hit rate allowed this season.

The Los Angeles Angels have also fallen cold against righties, posting a poor .642 OPS against them in the past month of play (third-worst in MLB). Oakland (.792 team OPS vs. RHP) has caught fire in the same time frame, but they'll be hard-pressed to dent Jose Soriano.

The sinkerballer's 59.9% groundball rate is elite, and he's allowed just 0.76 homers per nine as a result. One of the Athletics' strengths on this heater has been a team 42.3% flyball rate to produce a league-high 34 homers against righties in the past 30 days, but he's the kryptonite to that.

Soriano has given up just two earned runs in 13.1 innings of work over his last two outings, and Bido has been tremendous when opening games. They should quell these lackluster offenses.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Yankees Moneyline (-108)

The New York Yankees enjoy the benefit of a split advantage tonight -- and a classic Bill Simmons jinx that produced an 11-8 win following his tweet yesterday.

Though it's been a challenging season for Carlos Rodon, his 4.26 xERA states he's deserved a bit better than a current 4.42 ERA. Plus, he's still got decent stuff when sitting 76th percentile in whiff rate (29.2%). The Boston Red Sox should be a respite for him, posting a hideous 91 wRC+ and 29.8% strikeout rate (third-highest in MLB) over the past 30 days.

Meanwhile, the Bronx Bombers crush right-handers like Tanner Houck, whose elite start has cooled to allowed 12 earned over his previous four starts. Houck's 3.82 xERA is much closer to Rodon's than his actual ERA (2.71), too. New York has a 136 wRC+, .837 OPS, and .222 ISO against right-handers in the past month -- all top-three marks in baseball. He'll be in a tough spot to turn this recent trend around.

If this game is tight late, it's worth noting that the Yankees' bullpen (3.28 xFIP) has significantly outperformed the Red Sox's (4.82; worst in baseball) over the past 30 days. After all, that is how they won last night when tonight's affair currently stands as a pick 'em.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.