3 MLB Best Bets for Monday 7/29/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals

Texas Rangers Moneyline (-116)

It may surprise some that the Texas Rangers -- the reigning World Series champs -- have a worse record than the St. Louis Cardinals at this point in the season. That being said, the Rangers have a massive advantage on the mound with Nathan Eovaldi set to make his 19th start of the campaign on Monday.

Eovaldi owns a 7-4 record across his first 18 starts, giving up two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five outings. Meanwhile, Andre Pallante is expected to make his 10th start of the year for the Cardinals.

Pallante doesn't generate many swings and misses, ranking in just the 18th percentile in chase rate (25.2%), 11th percentile in whiff rate (19.7%), and 20th percentile in strikeout rate (18.3%). On top of that, Pallante is in the 41st percentile in walk rate (8.7%) with multiple walks in three of his last five outings, and the Rangers have the 9th-highest walk rate (9.0%) against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.

Eovaldi has earned a win in three of his last five contests while Pallante hasn't recorded a win in three consecutive appearances. Even though it's been far from a smooth season for Texas, Eovaldi's ability to pitch deep into games can help the Rangers secure a victory over St. Louis.

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

Kansas City Royals -1.5 (-102)

The Kansas City Royals are amid an ultra-competitive division race in the AL Central, with just 6.5 games separating them and the first place Cleveland Guardians. Getting to face the hapless Chicago White Sox should help the Royals gain some ground this week.

Alec Marsh has experienced some rough outings recently for Kansas City, allowing three-plus earned runs in five of his last seven starts. Monday's matchup with Chicago could be a perfect get-right spot for Marsh as the White Sox are logging the worst wOBA (.260), worst wRC+ (65), third-worst ISO (.129), and second-highest strikeout rate (26.9%) to righties over the last 30 days.

Additionally, the Royals should have no issues doing damage at the plate with Chris Flexen getting the nod for the White Sox. Besides giving up multiple earned runs in each of his last six outings, Flexen sits in the 17th percentile in xERA (4.82), 12th percentile in strikeout rate (16.9%), 33rd percentile in walk rate (9.3%), and 38th percentile in barrel rate (8.3%).

Across the 10 meetings between Kansas City and Chicago this season, the Royals have won by multiple runs in 8 of them. Despite Marsh's woes in recent games, Kansas City should take care of business against a Chicago team that has lost 14 straight contests -- with 10 of those being by two or more runs.

Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks Over 4.5 Total Runs (-125)

Mitchell Parker has struggled mightily on the bump for the Washington Nationals recently, and he'll face a tall task of pitching against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday. Parker has permitted five-plus earned runs in three of his last four starts while he ranks in the 34th percentile in xERA (4.33), 33rd percentile in xBA (.255), and 27th percentile in barrel rate (8.9%).

Those metrics could get Parker in trouble against a Diamondbacks squad that has the eighth-best wOBA (.351), eighth-best wRC+ (128), and eighth-lowest strikeout rate (20.6%) versus southpaws in the last 30 days.

Parker is allowing a 40.4% fly-ball rate and 1.52 HR/9 to righties, compared to a 36.8% fly-ball rate and 0.37 HR/9 to lefties. Considering those splits, Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and Lourdes Gurriel -- who all have a .335 wOBA or better against left-handed pitching -- can give Parker fits on the mound.

Scoring hasn't been an issue for Arizona recently, scoring five-plus runs in 15 of their 22 games in July.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.