3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 8/23/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles

Houston Astros Moneyline (-118)

The Houston Astros will put their nine-game road win streak on the line in Friday's matchup versus the Baltimore Orioles following a 6-0 victory over Baltimore on Thursday. Hunter Brown is slated to make his 25th start for the Astros, and he's been remarkable in recent months following a slow start to the campaign.

Brown has been credited with a win in 10 of his last 13 starts, producing a 3.26 xFIP, .269 wOBA, 26.5% strikeout rate, and 30.0% flyball rate during that span. Additionally, Brown performs better against lefties with a .290 wOBA, 3.35 xFIP, and 28.0% strikeout rate in that split, compared to a .338 wOBA, 3.72 xFIP, and 22.7% strikeout rate to righties. There's a good chance Baltimore deploys six or seven left-handed hitters on Friday.

On the flip side, Cade Povich is expected to make his return to the rotation for the Orioles, and the highly-touted pitching prospect has a disastrous 5.58 SIERA and 5.85 xFIP in nine starts in 2024. Along with those dismal metrics, Povich also ranks in the 5th percentile in strikeout rate (15.5%), 12th percentile in walk rate (11.5%), and 11th percentile in barrel rate (10.4%).

The Astros are an above-average team in left-handed matchups, logging the 14th-best wOBA (.317), 12th-best wRC+ (107), and 3rd-lowest strikeout rate (18.7%) in that split this season. It also helps that Baltimore's bullpen has the ninth-worst WHIP (1.37), second-worst HR/9 (1.8), seventh-highest flyball rate (41.4%), and eighth-highest hard contact rate (33.1%) in the last month, so Houston can do continue to do plenty of damage once Povich exits the contest.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox

Arizona Diamondbacks Over 4.5 Total Runs (-113)

There hasn't been a team that has performed better against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days than the Arizona Diamondbacks. During the last month of baseball, Arizona has the best wOBA (.392), wRC+ (153), and ISO (.275) while earning the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (17.7%) versus righties.

The Diamondbacks will square off against Brayan Bello and the Boston Red Sox on Friday, putting them in a fantastic spot for five-plus runs. Bello has a 50.8% groundball rate and just a 26.6% flyball rate, but Arizona is among the teams who can take advantage of Bello's weaknesses versus left-handed batters.

While Bello boasts an elite 2.78 xFIP, 26.5% strikeout rate, and 0.87 HR/9 to righties, he is permitting a 4.72 xFIP, 18.1% strikeout rate, and 1.90 HR/9 when taking on lefties. In addition to those numbers, Bello is allowing a 34.0% flyball rate to left-handed hitters, compared to an 18.2% flyball rate to right-handed hitters.

Those splits are worth mentioning due to the Diamondbacks potentially having seven or eight left-handed batters taking the field in Friday's showdown. To help Arizona's case even further, Boston's bullpen is another unit that has been struggling recently, posting the third-worst xFIP (4.81), second-worst WHIP (1.65), and worst HR/9 (1.9) in the last 30 days.

Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals Over 4.5 Total Runs (-130)

Another team that is in a premier spot to achieve their run total on Friday is the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have excelled at Kauffman Stadium this year, registering the 6th-best wOBA (.334), 11th-best wRC+ (108), 8th-best ISO (.173), and lowest strikeout rate (16.9%) at home.

Taijuan Walker has been one of the worst statistical pitchers for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2024 as he resides in the first percentile in xERA (6.39), eighth percentile in xBA (.279), first percentile in barrel rate (14.3%), and first percentile in hard-hit rate (49.2%). Across his first 12 starts for Philly this year, Walker has given up three-plus earned runs in 9 of them.

To go along with their impressive home splits, the Royals have the fourth-best wOBA (.353), sixth-best wRC+ (126), sixth-best ISO (.191), and second-lowest strikeout rate (16.5%) versus right-handed pitching in the last month of action. Since the start of August, Kansas City has tallied five-plus runs in 13 of their 18 games.

The trend of targeting a team with a sputtering bullpen continues with this pick as Philadelphia's relievers have the fourth-highest flyball rate (42.6%) and third-worst HR/9 (1.7) over the last 30 days. Barring a game where Walker earns his first win and/or quality start since May 11th, the Royals are in store to put up plenty of runs at home on Friday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.