3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Thursday 9/12/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Tyler O'Neill to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Tyler O'Neill has been hitting the ball hard in recent games, and he'll get a chance to face a vulnerable lefty with Nestor Cortes expected to start for the New York Yankees on Thursday. O'Neill has been crushing lefties for the Boston Red Sox this season to the tune of a .486 wOBA, 218 wRC+, and .438 ISO.

Over the last month, O'Neill has taken his metrics against left-handed pitching to another level, producing a .673 wOBA, 348 wRC+, and .857 ISO in the split during that span. Additionally, O'Neill boasts the eighth-highest barrel rate (20.0%) in the last 14 days with five homers across his last five outings.

Entering Thursday's contest, Cortes is permitting a .327 wOBA, 1.48 HR/9, and 48.7% flyball rate versus right-handed hitters. Throughout his 28 starts and one relief appearance in 2024, Cortes ranks in the 41st percentile in barrel rate (8.1%) and 11th percentile in hard-hit rate (43.8%).

The pitch mix favors O'Neill as he owns a .261 ISO or better against Cortes' primary three pitches (four-seam fastball, cutter, and changeup) versus righties. With winds expected to be blowing from right to left at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, O'Neill has a solid chance to take Cortes or New York's bullpen deep.

Luke Raley to Hit a Home Run (+600)

All eyes will be on Kumar Rocker of the Texas Rangers as he makes his first career start in the majors. Rocker has had an up-and-down experience in the minors, but he's a hard-throwing righty who can produce plenty of whiffs when he's locked in.

While it's exciting to see Rocker take the mound for the first time, Luke Raley is someone who could spoil Rocker's debut. Raley has quietly put together a solid season against righties for the Seattle Mariners, posting a .355 wOBA, 139 wRC+, and .235 ISO with the platoon advantage.

Even though T-Mobile Park is considered a pitcher-friendly venue, Raley is registering a .372 wOBA, 151 wRC+, and .295 ISO when facing right-handed pitching at home, compared to a .338 wOBA, 126 wRC+, and .174 ISO against righties on the road. The recent form is also ideal for Raley as he is rocking the MLB's best wOBA (.488), best wRC+ (231), and third-best ISO (.373) versus right-handed pitchers in the last month.

In terms of hitting the ball hard, Raley has the seventh-highest barrel rate (19.1%) and third-highest flyball rate (54.3%) over the last 30 days of action. Raley has three homers in his last nine contests, and once Rocker exits the contest, Texas' bullpen has given up the 9th-highest HR/9 (1.10) and 11th-highest flyball rate (40.7%) in the last month of baseball.

Willy Adames to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Hayden Birdsong is slated to make his 13th start for the Hayden Birdsong on Thursday, and some of his metrics are concerning despite him throwing at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. Up to this point, Birdsong resides in the 22nd percentile in barrel rate (9.2%), 3rd percentile in hard-hit rate (48.1%), and 2nd percentile in average exit velocity (91.3 MPH).

The only concern with taking someone to hit a homer against Birdsong is the fact he has a 15.0% walk rate, so there's a chance Birdsong issues free passes instead of putting the ball in the strike zone. At the same time, Birdsong is allowing a .382 wOBA, 2.82 HR/9, and 48.3% flyball rate to right-handed hitters this year, making Willy Adames an enticing player to target for a home run.

Aside from Birdsong displaying reverse splits on the bump, Adames is a right-handed hitter who excels against righties as he's logging a .365 wOBA, 135 wRC+, and .240 ISO in that split. While Adames is just one homer short of tying his career-best mark of 31 dingers in a season, 8 of his 30 long balls thus far have come in his last 16 games.

In the last 30 days, Adames is sporting a 14.3% barrel rate and 50.0% flyball rate, which is a good recipe for home runs. On top of that, Adames has a .216 ISO or better against all four of Birdsong's pitches (four-seam fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup) versus right-handed batters.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.