3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Bills at Dolphins

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Thursday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Thursday Night Football Best Player Prop Bets

Jaylen Waddle Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Week 2's Thursday Night Football match offers us a game between two AFC East foes: the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. The Fins come in as 2.5-point home favorites in a game that features a meaty 48.5 over/under, setting up an ideal environment for player props.

But Miami's injury report will shake up how we should approach this offense heading into the night. Not only has Raheem Mostert (chest) been ruled out, but De'Von Achane (ankle) has been listed as a game-time decision. Achane missed practice on Monday and Tuesday and was a limited participant on Wednesday. In turn, let's look for Jaylen Waddle to clear a manageable 64.5 receiving yards tonight.

In Week 1, Waddle reeled in a whopping 109 receiving yards via as many targets (5) as receptions (5). We should in no way expect him to manage 21.8 yards per catch and a perfect catch rate, once again.

However, Waddle's usage should look a lot prettier than Week 1. He briefly left Sunday's game to undergo concussion evaluation, leading to a more muted than usual 73.0% route rate and 14.3% target share. In 2023, Waddle enjoyed a 79.7% route rate and 23.4% target share.

Jeff Wilson and Jaylen Wright will get some run with Mostert out and Achane questionable, but their participation in the passing game shouldn't be as voluminous as their injured backfield counterparts. Mostert (3) and Achane (7) combined for 10 targets last week, good for a 28.6% target share.

Buffalo has a strong pass defense (fourth-best, per numberFire's metrics), but we did just see them surrender 28 points and 162 receiving yards to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. I'd be more scared of this defense if we were fully integrated into the 2024 season and the team wasn't coming off an abridged practice week.

Personally, I like Buffalo's chances tonight, which could set the Dolphins up for a heavy passing script in this game, something they are already accustomed to after throwing 37 pass attempts (sixth-most) in Week 1.

Our NFL projections forecast Waddle to log 78.2 receiving yards in this one. This checks out given the game environment (48.5 over/under), Miami's offensive injuries, and Waddle's historically high average depth of target (10.1 aDOT in 2023; 14.4 aDOT in Week 1). I'll back Waddle to run it back on Sunday's performance, perhaps through volume instead of insane efficiency.

Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown (+200)

I'm not going to let the results of Week 1 rule my opinion on Dalton Kincaid.

Kincaid was a massive disappointment in Sunday's game versus Arizona. He was targeted just twice and managed one reception for 11 yards. This sounds really, really bad.

However, Kincaid went as the TE5 in fantasy football drafts this season (per FantasyPros' consensus ADP data) for a reason. We're talking about a young and sizable tight end who was gifted a 17.7% target share and 14.5% red zone target share a season ago, even with Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis still around for Buffalo.

The assumption was that Kincaid could be in for an explosive season in Josh Allen's wide-open offense, and we could see signs of that tonight.

Before we jump into Kincaid's outlook against Miami, let's check out what happened on Sunday that led to saddening usage. When the Bills reached the two-minute warning in the first half of that game, the offense had been on the field for just 7.73 minutes. At the time, Allen had thrown a measly two pass attempts. It was a wildly uncharacteristic performance for an offense that was still working out the kinks, leaving Kincaid with zero opportunity to explode.

Now that Allen and company have one game under their belt, I'm expecting the offense to show out with four full quarters. We're talking about a team that averaged 32.05 minutes of possession time (second-most in NFL) a season ago.

The Dolphins surrendered 904 yards (11th-most) and 7 touchdowns (tied for sixth-most) to tight ends in 2023. Miami's D is now expected to feed Buffalo a 23.5-point total.

Following Sunday's match, Buffalo's OC Joe Brady stated that the team "would love to get him going earlier" and that it was clear Arizona's defense was keying in on Kincaid. If you think Allen can feed the beast early, you can get Dalton Kincaid First Touchdown Scorer at +1500 odds.

James Cook Over 81.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

In 2023, James Cook exceeded 81.5 rushing plus receiving yards in 8 out of 17 games and averaged 92.2 yards from scrimmage. His usage was shiny, even with Diggs and Davis crowding the wideout room.

Heading into this season, one of the biggest questions we had was how the usage would be divvied up in Buffalo's uncertain and perhaps lacking receiving room. That question was hardly answered on Sunday, as no receiver saw more than 5 targets and a whopping 10 players were, at some point, targeted. The lone staple in this Buffalo offense? That would be James Cook.

Cook rushed for 71 yards on 19 attempts and notched 32 receiving yards via 3 targets in Week 1. 103 yards from scrimmage wasn't hard to come by for Cook opposite a terrible Arizona group, but then again, Buffalo went into the half with hardly any yardage under their belt. Cook's efforts on Sunday, despite the team's trying first half, are a strong indication of what's to come for him this season.

Miami's 25th-ranked defensive line (per PFF) allowed Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne to skate by with a combined 117 rush yards on Sunday. This should be a fairly easy matchup for Cook and could make up for any potential efficiency issues following the quick turnaround into Week 2. Plus, Cook is accustomed to playing at a quick tempo after taking on the lion's share of backfield duties on a Buffalo team that played at the fourth-fastest pace in 2023.

Our projections expect Cook to tally 86.4 yards from scrimmage in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.