3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Tuesday 8/20/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+350)

It is certainly tempting to take Joey Bart (+500) to go deep in Tuesday's clash between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Texas Rangers, but it's tough not to back Corey Seager in an advantageous matchup. Seager is in fantastic form as he's coming off a two-homer performance on Monday, and he's totaled four long balls in his last nine contests.

On the season, Seager has crushed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .395 wOBA, 159 wRC+, and .269 ISO with a 43.7% flyball rate in that split. Those metrics should be put to good use against Mitch Keller, who is slated to make his 25th start of the season for the Pirates.

Aside from giving up two home runs in back-to-back outings, Keller is allowing a .335 wOBA, 1.62 HR/9, and 40.5% flyball rate to left-handed hitters. Just to make matters worse for Keller -- and better for us -- Seager boasts a .424 wOBA or higher and a .222 ISO or higher against two of Keller's three primary pitches (four-seam fastball and curveball) versus lefties.

The venue also works in our favor with the Pirates and Rangers playing at Globe Life Field, which has the 10th-best home-run park factor this year among MLB stadiums. Playing at home is something Seager enjoys to do, indicated by his .248 ISO and .520 SLG when taking the field in front of the fans in Texas compared to a .221 ISO and .496 SLG on the road.

Tyler Fitzgerald to Hit a Home Run (+450)

The park isn't ideal for home runs for Tyler Fitzgerald and the San Francisco Giants with Tuesday's matchup against the Chicago White Sox taking place at Oracle Park. That being said, Fitzgerald is poised to have a notable outing with Davis Martin projected to be on the mound for the White Sox.

It's a very small sample size of 18 innings pitched for Martin this season, but he's producing reverse splits with a .346 wOBA, 1.04 HR/9, and 44.0% flyball rate given up to right-handed hitters. Across three starts and one relief appearance in 2024, Martin is also registering a forgettable 12.0% barrel rate and 38.0% hard-hit rate.

While hitting out of the leadoff spot more often than not recently, Fitzgerald is sporting a .410 wOBA, 169 wRC+, and .327 ISO against right-handed pitching. Additionally, Fitzgerald has the 11th-best ISO (.384) and 15th-best SLG (.671) versus righties in the last month among hitters with 50-plus plate appearances.

Fitzgerald also excels versus Martin's two primary pitches (slider and four-seam fastball) against right-handed bats, tallying a .425 wOBA or higher and .297 ISO or better when seeing those pitches. Whenever Martin exits the contest for the White Sox, Chicago's bullpen has the second-worst xFIP (4.92), worst WHIP (1.75), and third-worst HR/9 (1.7) over the last 30 days.

Luke Raley to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Some may look at Tuesday's bout between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners as a perfect opportunity for Walker Buehler to find his groove on the mound. However, it's been a rough stretch of starts for Buehler since he rejoined the rotation, and there aren't any indications that he'll suddenly turn things around.

In his first nine starts for the Dodgers this year, Buehler ranks in the 11th percentile in xERA (5.06), 16th percentile in xBA (.270), and 16th percentile in strikeout rate (18.3%). Along with giving up at least one homer in eight of his nine outings, Buehler is allowing a .424 wOBA, 1.84 WHIP, and 2.37 HR/9 against lefties, which should put Luke Raley on our radar.

Raley has 3 homers in his last 10 appearances, and he's rocking a fantastic .383 wOBA, .289 ISO, and .533 SLG against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days of action. On top of that, Raley destroys Buehler's two primary pitches (cutter and four-seam fastball) versus left-handed hitters, notching a .420 wOBA or higher and .250 ISO or higher in that sample.

Another plus for Raley is the fact he won't be playing at T-Mobile Park -- which has the second-worst home run park factor this season -- and will instead be taking the plate at the park with the second-best home run park factor with Tuesday's game being played at Dodger Stadium. Once Buehler exits the contest, Los Angeles' bullpen has allowed the 7th-worst HR/9 (1.4) and 12th-worst flyball rate (39.0%) in the last month.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.