3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Tuesday 9/10/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Ryan Jeffers to Hit a Home Run (+500)

The Minnesota Twins carry the seventh-highest slugging percentage (SLG) and sixth-highest isolated power (ISO) in baseball and face off against the Los Angeles Angels' Griffin Canning tonight. Canning is in the bottom 9% of average exit velocity allowed and bottom 26% in hard-hit rate allowed, per Baseball Savant. We've also see Canning give up four home runs over his previous five starts.

Targeting a slugger in the Twins' lineup to go yard seems like a wise bet, but who's the best bet? Look no further than Ryan Jeffers. His .231 batting average doesn't yield much confidence, but he is tied for the most dingers on Minnesota (20). Let's take a deeper dive for this pick.

First off, let's start with pitch usage. Canning's two most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (37.4%) and changeup (27.0%), and Jeffers hits above his .231 season-long batting average when facing four-seamers (.237) and changeups (.286). He's also hit 15 of his 20 dingers against Canning's top three pitches -- four-seam fastball, changeup, and slider.

Adding to the support, Canning's fly-ball rate is 42.5% when facing right-handed hitters compared to 38.8% against lefties. We've seen Jeffers increase his fly-ball percentage from 42.7% to 49.0% over the last month of play. The cherry on top is Canning's 21.4% home-run-to-fly-ball rate allowed (HR/FB) against righties over the last 30 days. For reference, Canning has a 13.5% HR/FB allowed against right-handed hitters for the season.

Our daily DFS projections bring the pick home as Jeffers' 0.3 median projected homers holds a 25.9% implied probability for a dinger. His current +500 odds to go yard is only 16.7% implied.

Mark Vientos to Hit a Home Run (+470)

The Toronto Blue Jays' Chris Bassitt has struggled against sluggers this season compared to prior years. For example, he was in at least the 76th percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed from 2021 to 2023. Bassitt is now quite mediocre in the category, ranking in the 52nd percentile. Sitting in the bottom 41% in barrel percentage only adds to the concern.

He's also given up six homers over his previous six appearances. Bassitt's most-used pitches are a sinker (40.9%) and cutter (19.4%), which could give a good insight on which batter to target from the New York Mets' lineup.

Mark Vientos is raking to the tune of a .359 batting average against sinkers and .344 when facing cutters. He has the slugging numbers, as well, sitting in the top 11% in xSLG, top 5% in barrel rate, and top 21% in hard-hit percentage.

While Vientos' 38.0% fly-ball rate is nothing spectacular, his HR/FB of 26.1% is dangerous. It's gone up another notch over the last month of play at 28.0%. Bassitt's HR/FB allowed has also risen to 17.6% over his last six starts (11.0% for the season).

Between favorable pitch usage for Vientos and increased HR/FB rates across the board, this is an enticing home run target. His +470 odds to smack a long ball also holds a 17.5% implied probability compared to his 0.27 projected dingers holding 23.7% implied. The value is even present to back this prop.

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+440)

To round out our home run props for today, let's go out to the west for a matchup between the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks. Ketel Marte is tied for the third-highest median projected home runs tonight at 0.33. This carries a 28.1% implied probability for hitting one home run (or +256 odds). This alone is good reason to back Marte considering his current +440 odds to go yard (18.5% implied).

But is the matchup there, as well? The short answer -- yes.

Nathan Eovaldi, who will be on the mound for Texas tonight, is in the bottom 17% in hard-hit rate allowed. Over his previous six outings, Eovaldi has not surrendered one big fly to right-handed hitters compared to a 16.7% HR/FB allowed when facing lefties.

Fortunately for us, Marte is a switch hitter who will likely choose the left side for this matchup. Marte is also currently holding a career-high 25.4% HR/FB this season. Plus, his 33.0% fly-ball rate has jumped to 44.4% over the last month. His numbers are even better against right-handed hurlers during the span with ridiculous marks of a 66.7% fly-ball percentage and 50.0% HR/FB.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.