3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Thursday 7/11/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Prop Best Bets

Marcell Ozuna to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Marcell Ozuna is in a late-night matchup against Brandon Pfaadt at Chase Field with a closed roof.

Chase Field with the roof closed has had a moderate decline in home run rate than with the roof open since 2022 -- but it's not that substantial overall.

Pfaadt is letting up a 39.8% fly-ball rate on the year.

Ozuna is projected for 0.36 home runs, second-most of any player tonight, according to numberFire.

Players with similar projections to that since 2022 have homered in 24.3% of their games, putting some value on Ozuna to go yard at +320.

Bryan De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Bryan De La Cruz is in position to add a 16th long ball to his season tally tonight in a matchup against Jake Bloss, who has spent time at A+, AA, and AAA ball this season before getting called up to the show.

Bloss, notably, has faced just 18 batters at the MLB level this season and let up lift (53.3% fly-ball rate against them).

De La Cruz gets a plus park matchup for homers and is projected for 0.32 dongs. Historically, that puts him in the 23.9% range, suggesting odds closer to +320.

Ben Rice to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Ben Rice is off to a blazing start in his MLB career with the New York Yankees.

Rice has gone long 5 times in 73 plate appearances, and his wOBA (.365) actually trails his xwOBA (.410).

Rice's barrel rate (12.3%) is on par with the game's best, and while that may not last forever, his batted ball data couldn't look much better.

Further, Shane Baz got tagged in his season debut last time out: a 44.4% fly-ball rate and a 50.0% hard-hit rate in 6.0 innings (25 batters faced). He also had a 5.01 xFIP in AAA ball this season.

Rice's 0.34 HR projection suggests around 25.0% home run odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.