3 Best Passing Player Prop Bets for Super Bowl LIX

Throughout the playoffs, we've spent a lot of helium talking about the legs of Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes.

Hurts has the tush pushes, and Mahomes scampers more during the playoffs than during the regular season. The two combined for a whopping five rushing touchdowns in the conference championships.

But what about their arms?

FanDuel Sportsbook's Super Bowl betting odds are overflowing with passing props for these two, so no matter what your view of them, you may be able to find a market that calls to you.

Let's dig into three I like for Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX.

Passing Player Prop Picks for Super Bowl LIX

Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (+102)

I'd understand if you wanted to avoid projecting high efficiency out of Mahomes, given how stout the Eagles' defense has been this year.

This allows you to bet on him without sweating the effectiveness.

This is a mark Mahomes has hit regularly this season. He has gone over 36.5 pass attempts in 11 of 18 overall games, including 9 of 12 since the DeAndre Hopkins trade. They ranked second in pass rate over expectation, meaning in a neutral script, they've let it rip.

I wouldn't expect that to change here, unless the Eagles completely manage to play keep-away. This is my favorite Mahomes prop across all markets.

Jalen Hurts Under 254.5 Passing Plus Rushing Yards (-110)

Throughout the week, we've seen Hurts' rushing mark steadily decline. It was 40.5 on Monday and is now down to 36.5.

I agree with that movement, and I think there's additional lingering value in this market as a result.

Rushing yardage isn't really the huge draw for Hurts, given the prevalence of sneaks in his game. He averaged 42.0 yards per game in the regular season and is at 40.1 in the postseason. It's a good number relative to his prop, but he's not torching that number often.

Then we get to the passing side of things. Even if Hurts does blow up on the ground, this number can still go under if they don't throw much or he isn't effective.

Essentially, that gives us three paths to an under:

• Hurts' rushing output is low, in line with the market movement
• His passing volume is low
• His passing efficiency is low

Hurts has gone under this number in only 7 of 17 full games thus far, so the percentages aren't necessarily on our side. However, five of those unders have come in the past seven games -- including two of three in the playoffs -- as they've really leaned into Saquon Barkley and the run game. With that plan likely in place again Sunday, I think there's value on the under.

Patrick Mahomes' Longest Pass Under 33.5 Yards (-114)

This is another market where the rates thus far would not lead you to an under. Mahomes has completed a pass of at least 34 yards in 11 of 18 games, which would imply value in the over.

Stylistically, though, this matchup is one that forces us to consider the under.

Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has made his elite career off of limiting explosives. The team let up only 9 completions of 34-plus yards during the regular season, tied for fourth fewest of any team, according to Stathead.

Mahomes is willing to beat you underneath. His 6.2-yard aDOT this year, per Stathead, is the lowest of any season and down 1.4 yards from his career mark. Clearly, it's working for him, so if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Basically, it's a defense that wants to keep things underneath paired with a quarterback willing to oblige. Even if I expect Mahomes to be efficient Sunday, he doesn't need to complete long balls to do it.

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Which props stand out to you for Sunday's game? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest Super Bowl betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.