Super Bowl LIX Betting Trends: Over and Under Player Prop Rates for the Chiefs and Eagles

One of the more nuanced aspects of betting NFL player props is that you aren't betting averages; you're betting rates.

For example, let's say Player Y's rushing yardage prop is 80.5 yards. He has averaged 90.2 yards per game over his past 5, so you may think laying -110 on the over is obvious.

But what if those individual totals are 110, 75, 65, 71, and 130? There, even with an average of 90.2 yards per game, he'd still have gone over 80.5 yards in only 2 of 5 games, or 40.0%. When the implied odds at -110 are 52.4%, the past history says the over at -110 is a bad bet while the under may be the better route.

Luckily, for Super Bowl LIX, we've got a decent chunk of data on each player, meaning we actually can dig into how often they've cleared various benchmarks. We can't use this as gospel as things such as regression exist, and defensive matchups matter, but it can at least tell us if we're in the ballpark of a good bet.

Today, we're going to dig into that for key skill players, seeing how often they've cleared their respective props for Super Bowl LIX in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds in order to get a better grasp on what our expectations should be. For most of them, we'll dig into some key splits, too, trying to identify what they've done within their most relevant sample.

Let's start with the quarterbacks and then go from there.

Super Bowl LIX Player Prop Betting Trends

Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Props: Passing Trends

Patrick Mahomes' Passing Yardage Prop: 251.5 (over -110)

• Over in 9 of 18 overall games
• Over in 7 of 12 games with DeAndre Hopkins
• Over in 2 of 4 games with Marquise Brown

Current Prop Odds:

Mahomes' Pass Attempts Prop: 36.5 (over +104)

• Over in 11 of 18 overall games
• Over in 9 of 12 games with Hopkins
• Over in 2 of 4 games with Brown

Current Prop Odds:

Mahomes' Pass Touchdowns Prop: 1.5 (over -154)

• Over in 8 of 18 overall games
• Over in 6 of 12 games with Hopkins
• Over in 1 of 4 games with Brown

Current Prop Odds:

Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Props: Rushing Trends

Mahomes' Rushing Yards Prop: 29.5 (over -110)

• Over in 4 of 18 overall games
• Over in 8 of 20 career playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Mahomes Rush Attempts Prop: 5.5 (over -152)

• Over in 5 of 18 overall games
• Over in 10 of 20 career playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Props: Any Time Touchdown Trends

Mahomes' Any Time Touchdown Odds: +370

• Has scored in 3 of 18 overall games
• Has scored in 6 of 20 career playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Jalen Hurts Super Bowl Props: Passing Trends

Jalen Hurts' Passing Yardage Prop: 210.5 (over -110)

• Over in 8 of 17 full games
• Over in 7 of 14 full games with A.J. Brown
• Over in 3 of 6 full games with Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert healthy

Current Prop Odds:

Hurts' Pass Attempts Prop: 27.5 (over -108)

• Over in 7 of 17 full games
• Over in 4 of 14 full games with Brown
• Over in 3 of 6 full games with Brown, Smith, and Goedert healthy

Current Prop Odds:

Hurts' Passing Touchdowns Prop: 1.5 (over +180)

• Over in 7 of 17 full games
• Over in 7 of 14 full games with Brown
• Over in 3 of 6 full games with Brown, Smith, and Goedert healthy

Current Prop Odds:

Jalen Hurts Super Bowl Props: Rushing Trends

Hurts' Rushing Yards Prop: 40.5 (over -110)

• Over in 6 of 17 full games
• Over in 2 of 8 career playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Hurts' Rush Attempts Prop: 9.5 (over -132)

• Over in 9 of 17 overall full games
• Over in 26 of 53 games in the Tush Push Era (since Week 1 of 2022)
• Over in 3 of 8 career playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Jalen Hurts Super Bowl Props: Any Time Touchdown Trends

Hurts' Any Time Touchdown Scorer Odds: -115

• Has scored in 12 of 17 overall full games
• Has scored in 35 of 53 games in the Tush Push Era
• Has scored in 5 of 7 playoff games in the Tush Push Era

Current Prop Odds:

Hurts' Odds to Score Two-Plus Touchdowns: +550

• Has scored twice in 4 of 17 overall full games
• Has scored twice in 12 of 53 games in the Tush Push Era
• Has scored twice in 2 of 7 playoff games in the Tush Push Era

Current Prop Odds:

Saquon Barkley Super Bowl Props: Rushing Trends

Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop: 110.5 (over -110)

• Over in 11 of 19 overall games
• Over in 9 of 17 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Over in 3 of 3 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Barkley's Rush Attempts Prop: 21.5 (over -128)

• Over in 11 of 19 overall games
• Over in 9 of 17 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Over in 2 of 3 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Barkley's Rushing Plus Receiving Yards Prop: 126.5 (over -112)

• Over in 9 of 19 overall games
• Over in 7 of 17 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Over in 1 of 3 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Saquon Barkley Super Bowl Props: Receiving Trends

Barkley's Receiving Yards Prop: 12.5 (over -110)

• Over in 7 of 19 overall games
• Over in 7 of 17 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Over in 1 of 3 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Barkley's Receptions Prop: 1.5 (over -188)

• Over in 14 of 19 overall games
• Over in 13 of 17 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Over in 2 of 3 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Saquon Barkley Super Bowl Props: Any Time Touchdown Trends

Barkley's Any Time Touchdown Scorer Odds: -180

• Has scored in 10 of 19 overall games
• Has scored in 9 of 17 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Has scored in 2 of 3 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Barkley's Odds to Score Two-Plus Touchdowns: +280

• Has scored twice in 8 of 19 overall games
• Has scored twice in 7 of 17 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Has scored twice in 2 of 3 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Kareem Hunt Super Bowl Props: Rushing Trends

Kareem Hunt's Rushing Yards Prop: 43.5 (over -110)

• Over in 4 of 7 games with Isiah Pacheco back
• Over in 2 of 2 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Hunt's Rush Attempts Prop: 11.5 (over +102)

• Over in 3 of 7 games with Pacheco back
• Over in 1 of 2 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Hunt's Rushing Plus Receiving Yards Prop: 53.5 (over -110)

• Over in 2 of 7 games with Pacheco back
• Over in 1 of 2 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Kareem Hunt Super Bowl Props: Receiving Trends

Hunt's Receiving Yards Prop: 6.5 (over -110)

• Over in 2 of 7 games with Pacheco back
• Over in 0 of 2 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Hunt's Receptions Prop: 1.5 (over +142)

• Over in 2 of 7 games with Pacheco back
• Over in 0 of 2 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Kareem Hunt Super Bowl Props: Any Time Touchdown Trends

Hunt's Any Time Touchdown Scorer Odds: +135

• Has scored in 4 of 7 games with Pacheco back
• Has scored in 2 of 2 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl Props: Rushing Trends

Pacheco's Rushing Yards Prop: 20.5 (over -110)

• Over in 4 of 7 games since return
• Over in 0 of 2 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Pacheco's Rush Attempts Prop: 5.5 (over -138)

• Over in 5 of 7 games since return
• Over in 0 of 2 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Pacheco's Rushing Plus Receiving Yards Prop: 28.5 (over -106)

• Over in 3 of 7 games since return
• Over in 0 of 2 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl Props: Receiving Trends

Pacheco's Receiving Yards Prop: 3.5 (over -115)

• Over in 4 of 7 games since return
• Over in 1 of 2 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Pacheco's Receptions Prop: 1.5 (over +188)

• Over in 2 of 7 games since return
• Over in 1 of 2 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl Props: Any Time Touchdown Trends

Pacheco's Any Time Touchdown Scorer Odds: +330

• Has scored in 0 of 7 games since return
• Has scored in 0 of 2 playoff games

Current Prop Odds:

AJ Brown Super Bowl Props: Receiving Trends

Brown's Receiving Yards Prop: 70.5 (over -110)

• Over in 9 of 16 overall games
• Over in 8 of 14 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Over in 3 of 6 games with Smith and Goedert healthy

Current Prop Odds:

Browns' Receptions Prop: 4.5 (over -168)

• Over in 11 of 16 overall games
• Over in 10 of 14 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Over in 4 of 6 games with Smith and Goedert healthy

Current Prop Odds:

AJ Brown Super Bowl Props: Any Time Touchdown Trends

Brown's Any Time Touchdown Scorer Odds: +180

• Has scored in 8 of 16 overall games
• Has scored in 6 of 14 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Has scored in 2 of 6 games with Smith and Goedert healthy

Current Prop Odds:

DeVonta Smith Super Bowl Props: Receiving Trends

Smith's Receiving Yards Prop: 51.5 (over -110)

• Over in 9 of 16 overall games
• Over in 8 of 14 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Over in 2 of 6 games with Brown and Goedert healthy

Current Prop Odds:

Smith's Receptions Prop: 4.5 (over +102)

• Over in 7 of 16 overall games
• Over in 7 of 14 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Over in 1 of 6 games with Brown and Goedert healthy

Current Prop Odds:

DeVonta Smith Super Bowl Props: Any Time Touchdown Trends

Smith's Any Time Touchdown Scorer Odds: +230

• Has scored in 7 of 16 overall games
• Has scored in 6 of 14 games with Hurts fully healthy
• Has scored in 0 of 6 games with Brown and Goedert healthy

Current Prop Odds:

Dallas Goedert Super Bowl Props: Receiving Trends

Goedert's Receiving Yards Prop: 52.5 (over -110)

• Over in 5 of 11 full games
• Over in 3 of 6 games with Brown and Smith

Current Prop Odds:

Goedert's Receptions Prop: 4.5 (over -140)

• Over in 4 of 11 full games
• Over in 2 of 6 games with Brown and Smith

Current Prop Odds:

Dallas Goedert Super Bowl Props: Any Time Touchdown Trends

Goedert's Any Time Touchdown Scorer Odds: +330

• Has scored in 3 of 11 full games
• Has scored in 2 of 6 games with Brown and Smith

Current Prop Odds:

Travis Kelce Super Bowl Props: Receiving Trends

Travis Kelce's Receiving Yards Prop: 60.5 (over -110)

• Over in 9 of 18 games
• Over in 7 of 12 games with Hopkins
• Over in 2 of 4 games with Brown
• Over in 5 of 6 playoff games the past two years

Current Prop Odds:

Kelce's Receptions Prop: 6.5 (over +128)

• Over in 8 of 18 games
• Over in 6 of 12 games with Hopkins
• Over in 2 of 4 games with Brown
• Over in 4 of 6 playoff games the past two years

Current Prop Odds:

Travis Kelce Super Bowl Props: Any Time Touchdown Trends

Kelce's Any Time Touchdown Scorer Odds: +130

• Has scored in 4 of 18 games
• Has scored in 4 of 12 games with Hopkins
• Has scored in 2 of 4 games with Brown
• Has scored in 3 of 6 playoff games the past two years

Current Prop Odds:

Xavier Worthy Super Bowl Props: Receiving Trends

Xavier Worthy's Receiving Yards Prop: 55.5 (over -110)

• Over in 5 of 18 games
• Over in 4 of 12 games with Hopkins
• Over in 3 of 4 games with Brown

Current Prop Odds:

Worthy's Receptions Prop: 5.5 (over +112)

• Over in 4 of 18 games
• Over in 4 of 12 games with Hopkins
• Over in 3 of 4 games with Brown

Current Prop Odds:

Xavier Worthy Super Bowl Props: Any Time Touchdown Trends

Worthy's Any Time Touchdown Scorer Odds: +150

• Has scored in 9 of 18 games
• Has scored in 6 of 12 games with Hopkins
• Has scored in 3 of 4 games with Brown

Current Prop Odds:

Marquise Brown Super Bowl Props: Receiving Trends

Brown's Receiving Yards Prop: 40.5 (over -110)

• Over in 2 of 4 games

Current Prop Odds:

Brown's Receptions Prop: 3.5 (over -120)

• Over in 2 of 4 games

Current Prop Odds:

Marquise Brown Super Bowl Props: Any Time Touchdown Trends

Brown's Any Time Touchdown Scorer Odds: +270

• Has scored in 0 of 4 games

Current Prop Odds:

DeAndre Hopkins Super Bowl Props: Receiving Trends

Hopkins' Receiving Yards Prop: 11.5 (over -110)

• Over in 9 of 12 games with the Chiefs
• Over in 1 of 4 games with Brown

Current Prop Odds:

Hopkins' Receptions Prop: 1.5 (over +126)

• Over in 10 of 12 games with Chiefs
• Over in 2 of 4 games with Brown

Current Prop Odds:

DeAndre Hopkins Super Bowl Props: Any Time Touchdown Trends

Hopkins' Any Time Touchdown Scorer Odds: +650

• Has scored in 3 of 12 games with Chiefs
• Has scored in 0 of 4 games with Brown

Current Prop Odds:

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.