3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Monday 7/22/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Best Home Run Props

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Bryce Harper squares up with Bailey Ober, a righty with a 48.9% fly-ball rate and a 36.0% hard-hit rate.

Ober is also letting up a 6.3% barrel rate, ranking him 292nd among 379 qualified pitchers this season.

Meanwhile, Harper owns a top-40 barrel rate of his own (8.1%).

numberFire's model projects Harper for 0.33 home runs. Players with a similar projection have went long 25.2% of the time, via numberFire's database.

Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Brent Rooker sits inside the top-12 in barrel rate (10.1%) on the year and faces Spencer Arrighetti.

Arrighetti is letting up above-average marks in fly-ball rate (39.5%) and hard-hit rate (39.5%).

Rooker's home run number of 22 is tied to an xHR mark of 23.9; the 23.9 xHR rank him seventh in the MLB.

numberFire's model is projecting Rooker for a top-three home run number today (0.40).

Austin Riley to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Austin Riley ranks 12th in barrel rate (10.0%) and has regression coming.

His slugging percentage (.457) is well off the pace of his xSLG (.517). The xSLG ranks him 19th overall, and the differential is top-30 in the majors.

Hunter Greene has an elevated K-rate (27.6%), so it's not a flawless matchup, but Greene also lets up fly balls (47.6%).

With a homer projection of 0.33, he's rating out similarly to Harper, via numberFire's model.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.