3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Friday 9/27/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+500)

We're entering the final weekend of regular-season play in MLB, so let's go out with a bang with some dinger picks. Our choices for Friday are limited with rain being a factor in several contests due to Hurricane Helene. One of baseball's best slugging bets -- the New York Yankees -- should be clear of inclement weather.

The Yanks' order is certainly worth targeting with Jared Jones on the mound. The Pirates' hurler is in the bottom 7% in hard-hit percentage, bottom 11% in barrel rate, and bottom 23% in average exit velocity allowed (via Savant). He's given up four homers over four starts this month, and his 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) and 13.3% home run to fly-ball rate (HR/FB) have jumped to 2.1 and 18.2%, respectively, over the last 30 days.

Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm are a couple of names that come to mind, and Chisholm (+500) is the more intriguing pick than Judge (+255) thanks to juicy odds.

Jazz has hit 10 of his 23 home runs against four-seam fastballs and sliders -- Jones' most-used pitches. Despite hitting only one big fly in September, Chisholm has increased his season-long 35.3% fly-ball rate to 40.0% this month. Pair that with Jones' high HR/9 clip and HR/FB rate, and we're getting somewhere.

Our MLB DFS projections also have Jazz with 0.31 median projected homers -- 26.7% implied probability for at least one tater (or +275 odds). If correct, this suggests excellent value with Chisholm's current +500 odds holding only a 16.7% implied probability for a long ball.

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Our projections are pointing to another batter carrying some puzzling odds. Brandon Lowe has the second-highest projected homers on today's slate (0.36). That comes out to a 30.2% implied probability for at least one tater (or +231 odds), yet Lowe is +600 to go yard (or 14.3% implied odds).

Is there enough support to actually back this pick?

Lowe will face Boston Red Sox pitcher Nick Pivetta. Head-to-head matchups is the first check mark as three of Lowe's four career hits against Pivetta have been dingers. Additionally, Lowe is carrying a .722 SLG when facing Pivetta.

Over his previous eight starts, Pivetta has given up 10 home runs. On the season, he carries a 1.8 HR/9, 48.6% fly-ball rate, and 15.6% HR/FB rate. All three marks have spiked over his last eight: 2.1 HR/9, 51.7% fly-ball rate, and 16.7% HR/FB rate.

Despite a .221 batting average this month (compared to .242 for the season), Lowe's HR/FB rate has jumped to 20.8% (season-long mark is 18.4%). He's also jacked two dingers over his last four outings. The +600 odds for a homer are worth a swing considering the matchup.

Marcell Ozuna to Hit a Home Run (+360)

It's been a slow month for home runs for one of MLB's top sluggers. In fact, it's been the slowest month yet this season, with Marcell Ozuna holding only two dingers this month (his previous low in a month was five).

The Atlanta Braves' star designated hitter has been hitting just fine, though, posting a .329 batting average and .420 OBP this month. We could see Ozuna get back to smashing pitches over the fence with an ideal matchup against the Kansas City Royals' Brady Singer.

This has been far from a good month for Singer against sluggers. He's carrying a 2.1 HR/9 and 25.0% HR/FB rate in September. It gets even worse against right-handed hitters: 2.6 HR/9 and 33.3% HR/FB rate.

Ozuna is also hitting a blistering .326 against sinkers this season, which Singer's most-used offering. He's also hit 18 of his 39 homers against sinkers and sliders -- Singer's most-used pitches.

The proof is in the pudding for this pick. Projections are pointing to decent value too, as Ozuna's 0.30 projected homers carries 25.9% implied odds for a dinger. His current +360 line has only 21.7% implied probability.

All customers get a 25% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ leg Same Game Parlay wager on any MLB game happening September 27th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.