3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Dinger Tuesday (7/23/24)

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Jose Berrios' 4.01 ERA isn't bad, but he's got some dinger-ceding tendencies elsewhere in his analytical profile.

On top of his flat rate of homers per nine (1.59 HR/9), the Toronto Blue Jays' righty possesses a 38.7% flyball rate, 42.3% hard-hit rate, and 7.0% barrel rate allowed.

Enter the Tampa Bay Rays' top power threat against righties, Brandon Lowe. Lowe's .230 ISO leads the team's qualifiers in the split, and he's also lifted 44.4% of his balls in play to the air with a 33.3% hard-hit rate against right-handers.

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections expect 0.36 homers from Lowe today, which would correlate to roughly +231 odds for at least one.

Christian Walker to Hit a Home Run (+430)

If there's a poor righty on the opposing bump, it's a Christian Walker spot by default.

Walker has 18 homers against right-handers this season on the back of a team-best .256 ISO, 47.3% flyball rate, and 39.3% hard-hit rate in the split. Alec Marsh should be a perfect target.

Marsh's quick start has ballooned to a 4.15 ERA as hitters have begun to take advantage of his ripe 43.3% flyball and 41.0% hard-hit rates allowed. He's coughed up 1.28 HR/9 despite a middle-of-the-road HR:FB ratio (11.4%).

We've got Walker at 0.27 projected HRs on Tuesday, which would merit roughly +323 odds for one if correct.

Michael Toglia to Hit a Home Run (+470)

This one might be worth waiting on to make sure Michael Toglia gets a decent spot in the order. While projected to hit fifth, the Colorado Rockies have hit their best power threat against righties as low as eighth in July.

If he does, Toglia could pummel Boston Red Sox righty Cooper Criswell in this one. Criswell takes the mound at Coors Field for the first time in his career, and a below-average barrel rate allowed (7.9%) could bite him.

The Rox's first baseman is undoubtedly their best candidate to barrel one. He's posted a 43.9% flyball and 42.7% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season, which has led to a .214 ISO.

Toglia hasn't homered in four games since a three-homer day against the New York Mets in Queens, but this matchup in baseball's funhouse can get him going. We've got him projected for 0.29 homers, meriting roughly +297 odds for one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.