3 Best NHL Bets and Predictions for Friday 2/28/25

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. New York Rangers

Maple Leafs Moneyline (-125)

Chris Drury’s message to his team earlier this season appears to have had the opposite of the intended effect. The New York Rangers GM warned his club to improve or risk being traded. Since then, the Rangers have barely kept their heads above water and risk missing out on the playoffs. That downward trajectory carries them into Friday’s battle versus the Toronto Maple Leafs.

While the Rangers have won three of their past four, their on-ice product doesn’t reflect those outcomes. New York has been outplayed in all but one of those contests while producing a disastrous 41.0% expected goals-for rating. Their defensive-zone coverage has been abysmal, with three of those four opponents exceeding 15 high-danger chances for an ungodly average of 14.5.

Under the new direction of Craig Berube, the Maple Leafs haven’t attacked this season with the same analytic gusto that we’re used to. However, they’ve achieved better outcomes and are on the verge of claiming their first non-Canadian-based division title since 1999-00. Their recent efforts validate that trajectory, as the Leafs have won three straight while recording 16 goals.

Toronto’s chances of winning are greater than the -125 moneyline price implies. On that basis, we see an edge in backing the visitors in this Original Six battle.

Los Angeles Kings vs. Dallas Stars

Kings Moneyline (+110)

The Los Angeles Kings are coming off one of their most dominant performances of the season. Still, the outcome didn’t go their way in Wednesday’s overtime loss to the Vancouver Canucks. The Kings can return to the winning track with Friday’s clash versus the Dallas Stars.

LA utterly dominated the Canucks. Ultimately, the Kings out-chanced their guests by a 12-2 margin in high-danger chances, contributing to a 72.1% expected goals-for rating. That was the fifth time in seven games in which the Kings have outplayed their opponents -- and the fourth time over their last six in which they’ve eclipsed 10 quality chances.

The Stars enter tonight’s Western Conference affair on less reliable analytics footing. Dallas has outplayed just three of its last seven opponents. Moreover, they’ve been constantly chasing the puck in their own end. Across the same seven-game sample, all but two of those foes have hit double-digit high-danger chances. Not surprisingly, the Stars have been out-chanced in all but three of those contests.

Even though they’re the visitors, the Kings have been a superior analytics team over the recent schedule. As a result, we see an edge in backing the plus-money underdogs in Big D.

Minnesota Wild vs. Colorado Avalanche

Avalanche Moneyline (-295)

The Minnesota Wild are trying to pump the breaks on a modest two-game losing streak. However, the betting odds are stacked against them versus the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs have won three of their past five and are natural progression candidates for their coming games.

Colorado’s record isn’t nearly as good as its analytics imply. The Avalanche are 5-4-0 over their last nine, a stretch in which they’ve been outplayed only once. Cumulatively, they’ve put forward a 57.9% expected goals-for rating, marginally ahead of their actual percentage of 56.7%. Still, both benchmarks support the idea that the Avs should have more than five wins.

Friday’s intra-divisional is shaping up as a terrible spot for the Wild. This will be Minnesota’s third game in four nights, including the second night of a back-to-back. Moreover, they’ve posted eroding defensive metrics across their recent sample. Four of their last five opponents have surpassed 10 high-danger opportunities, resulting in 15 goals against over their last four. That’s unlikely to improve against the analytically superior Avalanche.

As inferred, the Avalanche have a substantive advantage in this one. We’re taking a firm stance on the hosts, expecting them to win convincingly in Denver.

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