3 Best MLB Strikeout Prop Bets for Thursday 4/3/25

Within a given MLB slate, there are tons of strikeout props to sort through as there are lines posted for most of the day's starting pitchers.

Across today's action, which seem to present the best value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds?

We're going to dig into that today, laying out my favorite strikeout props across all the action. You can also do some research of your own by digging into our MLB player prop projections.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB K Props

Nestor Cortes Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-142)

It's not fun to pay -142 for a prop in a market that can be volatile this time of year. But it is a value for me, and I agree with what my numbers are saying.

Nestor Cortes' struggles in his Milwaukee Brewers debut were a continuation of what we saw last year. Across his past 13 outings -- in which Cortes has thrown more changeups, likely to try to slow down right-handed batters facing him -- Cortes has just a 20.6% strikeout rate. His full-season mark last year was 22.8%, down from his career mark of 24.6%. Although the changeup does generate whiffs, this tradeoff hasn't worked yet.

He does get relief in facing a Cincinnati Reds lineup that has struggled to hit lefties, but I've got Cortes projected for just 4.69 strikeouts. Pitchers projected in that range have gone under 5.5 strikeouts 63.5% of the time, which translates to roughly -174 odds. Thus, I'm on board with this market at -142.

Carlos Carrasco Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+114)

Similar to Cortes, Carlos Carrasco got lit up at Yankee Stadium in his first outing of the season. His prop market is just much lower, which is why I can plug an over.

Carrasco worked the opposite direction of Cortes down the stretch last year, opting to throw fewer changeups over his final 16 starts. When you combine that with his relief outing last week, Carrasco has a 20.2% strikeout rate in this span, up from where he was in 2023.

I do expect that to come down a bit this year -- it's his age-38 season, after all -- and he hasn't gone more than 61 pitches yet since the start of spring training. Even with Carrasco projected at just 80 pitches, though, I still have him down for 3.62 strikeouts. That puts him as roughly a toss-up to exceed 3.5, so the +114 is a nice draw.

Joe Ryan Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)

During his tenure with the Minnesota Twins, manager Rocco Baldelli has typically slow-played pitch counts on his starters early on. We saw that with Joe Ryan in his first start as he went just 81 pitches. I think that leads to value in the under here.

It's not just the pitch counts that push me here, though. Ryan is also facing a Houston Astros lineup whose active roster has a 19.4% strikeout rate against righties since the start of last year.

The final push toward the under is that Ryan is starting to mix in a sinker more. It's an attempt to combat the hard contact that bit him throughout last year, and it's likely not a bad idea; it's just not one that's likely to lead to strikeouts as that pitch had just a 9.2% whiff rate last year, according to Baseball Savant.

Ryan's projection for me is 5.21 strikeouts, meaning I've got him more likely to go under 5.5 than over as things currently stand.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.