3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday 4/1/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

On top of that, FanDuel Sportsbook has a special offer for users betting a "To Hit a Home Run" wager today!

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Today's Best Home Run Props

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Despite temperatures below 50 degrees in the forecast at Great American Ball Park yesterday, that didn't stop the Cincinnati Reds and Texas Rangers from combining for 17 runs and 4 dingers, showing that one of the league's most hitter-friendly venues can still come through in less than ideal conditions.

It should be a smidge warmer this time around (mid 50s), but our main interest in coming here tonight is the combination of the ballpark and Reds right-hander Carson Spiers.

That's because Spiers was a launching pad for home runs across 90 2/3 innings in 2024, giving up a whopping 1.99 HR/9 off a 44.6% fly-ball rate. Maybe he won't allow dingers at that high a clip in 2025, but his underlying metrics didn't paint a pretty picture between a 4.84 xERA (15th percentile), 10.4% barrel rate (8th percentile), 19.5% strikeout rate (22nd percentile), and 35.9% ground-ball rate (13th percentile).

Against left-handed batters, Spiers posted worse marks in xFIP (5.05) and K rate (17.8%) while also giving up more fly balls (47.0%).

This leads us to Corey Seager.

In 2024, Seager was 94th percentile of in all of barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and xSLG, and he's hit at least 30 home runs in three straight seasons despite missing time due to injuries in the last two. Although he's off to a slow start, 5 of his 10 batted balls have been hard hits, and 1 was a barrel, so it's only a matter of time before he slugs his first dinger -- perhaps as soon as tonight.

Oneil Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Finding a game with temperatures in the 80s and a bit of humidity isn't super common this time of year, but we have one in this matchup due to the Tampa Bay Rays setting up shop outdoors at Steinbrenner Field this season. On a slate where most matchups are in domes or have temperatures in the 40s-60s, we should take advantage of these conditions when possible.

Well, it just so happens that Rays starter Shane Baz is a viable candidate to attack for home runs.

Baz was productive over 14 starts last season, and his underlying numbers suggest he should be roughly a league-average hurler in 2025. However, while he didn't allow a ton of dingers in 2024, he wasn't a stranger to loud contact, sitting inside the 9th percentile in average exit velocity and 21st percentile in hard-hit rate. Between this and not having particularly high marks in ground-ball rate or strikeout rate, Baz could see more balls leave the park this season.

Similar to our previous entry, lefty sticks should have the best chance of doing damage. Last season, the right-hander posted a 4.85 xFIP, 19.8% K rate, and 44.7% fly-ball rate versus left-handed bats, and 6 of the 9 home runs he allowed came from lefties.

Oneil Cruz came through us when we looked his way last week, and this appears like the right spot to go back to the well. As a refresher, Cruz's power isn't in doubt after finishing last season in the 97th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. Further, he's already popped in this 99th percentile of maximum exit velocity this season.

Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+390)

The Milwaukee Brewers have allowed 47 runs (!!) over their first four games, including double-digit runs in three straight, between injuries and an already overworked pitching staff. Right-hander Chad Patrick will be making his first MLB start on Tuesday.

Patrick was International League Pitcher of the Year in Triple-A last year, but he actually posted a mediocre 4.43 xFIP, which is roughly where projection systems on FanGraphs see his ERA landing in 2025. Further, he's consistently held a low ground-ball rate throughout the minors and projects to have a league-average K rate, so these models universally see him allowing 1.35 HR/9 or worse.

The right-hander struggled in his MLB debut last weekend, allowing two earned runs and a home run in one inning of relief -- and none of his Statcast metrics inspired confidence.

Given that he's being thrust into this spot start simply out of necessity, chances are he won't pitch particularly deep into the game, but all that means is that the Kansas City Royals will get to also take hacks against a bullpen that's struggling to stay afloat.

Bobby Witt Jr. has one of those absurd Baseball Savant pages where practically every row is a bright red bar, and it's enticing to get him at this price versus a pitching staff on the ropes. American Family Field has the league's sixth-best park factor for home runs, per Baseball Savant, too.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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