3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 3/28/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Today's Best Home Run Props

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Today's Colorado Rockies-Tampa Bay Rays matchup will have temperatures in the 80s at George M. Steinbrenner Field -- the Rays' home in 2025 -- and that should immediately grab our attention when hunting for home runs.

That's even more the case when the Rockies are rolling out Kyle Freeland as their starting pitcher.

In 2024, Freeland posted an ugly 5.11 xERA and 17.3% strikeout rate with poor marks in barrel rate (7th percentile), average exit velocity (14th percentile), and maximum exit velocity (7th percentile). With ugly numbers like that, it's no wonder he gave up 1.75 HR/9.

This wasn't just the Coors Field effect, either, as the left-hander gave up a higher rate of dingers on the road (1.99 HR/9) compared to at home (1.48).

Right-handed batter Junior Caminero will have the platoon advantage against the southpaw, and he's an intriguing option to knock one out of the park. Caminero isn't a household name yet -- though you've maybe seen this home run -- but the 21-year-old showed promise last year and should be an exciting piece for Tampa Bay this season.

Caminero logged a .248 ISO in the minors last season, and over his 177 plate appearance in MLB, he posted a maximum exit velocity in the 98th percentile. Despite his limited experience, projection systems on FanGraphs are universally pegging him for 20-plus home runs and perhaps even as high as 30.

Between both the weather and plus pitching matchup, Caminero could make an immediate impact for the Rays with a dinger on Friday.

Triston Casas to Hit a Home Run (+360)

The Boston Red Sox take on the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field again tonight, and their bats may have one of the slate's better matchups versus Jack Leiter.

While Leiter produced a tantalizing 33.3% K rate in Triple-A last season, his first stint in the big leagues didn't go swimmingly. Over 35 2/3 MLB innings, he struggled with both punchouts (17.9%) and walks (9.8%), and the end result was a lackluster 6.25 xERA. Most notable for our purposes, though, is that he coughed up 1.77 HR/9 with a mere 38.1% ground-ball rate.

Projection systems on FanGraphs aren't very optimistic about Leiter in 2025, and ATC specifically forecasts a 4.91 ERA while giving up 1.39 HR/9.

Leiter particularly struggled versus left-handed MLB batters (5.99 xFIP), and while Rafael Devers is always a viable option (+285 to hit a home run), Triston Casas might be the better value at slightly longer odds.

Casas has produced a barrel rate above 13% in back-to-back seasons -- slightly better than Devers over that span -- and he's put up a .222 ISO across 844 career plate appearances. While Casas has naturally faced more right-handers over his career, it's still encouraging that 35 of his 42 career home runs have come versus righties.

According to our MLB projections, Casas is tied for the third-best chance of hitting a home run on Friday.

Oneil Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Connor Gillispie is taking the mound for the Miami Marlins, and he has all of eight innings of MLB experience. With that in mind, his Triple-A numbers are our best sample to check out, and if those are any indication, he could struggle in 2025.

Last season in the minors, the right-hander logged a 5.16 xFIP, 25.0% strikeout rate, and 10.1% walk rate while allowing 1.75 HR/9 off a 48.6% fly-ball rate. Outside of the solid K rate, those aren't very inspiring marks.

ATC projects Gillispie to record a 4.73 ERA, 20.4% strikeout rate, and 1.35 HR/9.

The Pittsburgh Pirates aren't exactly a stacked lineup, but Oneil Cruz has the kind of power we're looking for in this market. In 2024, Cruz produced elite figures in barrel rate (97th percentile), hard-hit rate (97th percentile), average exit velocity (99th percentile), and maximum exit velocity (100th percentile).

Although Cruz did strike out too often (30.2%), that's less of a concern versus a pitcher who projects to have an average K rate.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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