3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 8/21/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Hunter Goodman to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Hunter Goodman is at Coors against a lefty, and that pushes me toward his home run odds in this 3:11 p.m. ET game.

The lefty Goodman will see is Clayton Kershaw. In 2025, Kershaw owns a 4.53 SIERA and 15.5% strikeout rate. His 3.01 ERA paints a pretty picture, but once you pop the hood, he looks like a pitcher to target in the dinger market -- especially at Coors.

Goodman is having a breakout season, mashing 25 homers en route to a .362 wOBA. He's popped eight long-balls in just 107 at-bats versus southpaws. At home against lefties, he's sporting a 46.3% hard-hit rate and 53.7% fly-ball rate.

These odds are pretty modest given all the boxes Goodman checks today.

Ben Rice to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Ben Rice's Statcast page has a lot of red on it (that's good), and he's in a friendly spot tonight at Yankee Stadium versus Lucas Giolito.

Rice ranks in at least the 94th percentile all of expected wOBA (.410), expected batting average (.292), expected slugging (.573), average exit velocity (93.4 MPH), barrel rate (16.5%) and hard-hit rate (55.1%). Yes, please.

Giolito is a wild card. Over his last six starts, he's posted three outings where he held the opposition to one earned run in each. In the other three starts, he's been hammered for at least four earned runs in each appearance.

Lefties have amassed a 48.2% fly-ball rate against Giolito this year, and that puts Rice in a money spot at homer-happy Yankee Stadium.

Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+480)

Alec Burleson is on my radar tonight at longer odds.

Admittedly, I think opposing starter Joe Boyle might be pretty good as he blowtorched the minor leagues this season. But Boyle is right-handed, and this game is taking place at the Tampa Bay Rays' homer-friendly temporary home -- two big feathers in Burleson's cap tonight.

Despite shredding down on the farm, Boyle isn't off to a stellar start in The Show, permitting a 52.9% fly-ball rate and 1.65 jacks per nine over a small sample of 32.2 MLB frames. Lefties have tagged him for a 42.6% hard-hit rate and 53.2% fly-ball rate.

Burleson is much better against right-handers (.348 wOBA and 38.1% hard-hit rate) than lefties (.310 and 23.5%), with 12 of his 15 taters coming with the platoon advantage. He's also getting more chances to hit against lefties, which removes some pinch-hit risk from the equation.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.