3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 4/17/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Oneil Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+460)

In one of the day's early starts (12:35 p.m. ET), Oneil Cruz is in a nice spot to go yard.

Cruz has a delightful matchup against Trevor Williams. The Washington Nationals' right-hander is not a high-strikeout hurler, recording a measly 18.3% K rate since the start of 2023 (225 2/3 innings). He also lets up plenty of fly balls, giving up a 40.0% fly-ball rate in said span.

In Williams' last full season (2023), lefties mauled him to the tune of a .371 wOBA and 41.7% fly-ball rate.

Cruz is a lot more lethal versus right-handers, putting up a .344 wOBA and 44.7% hard-hit rate in the split last year, compared to a .293 wOBA and 32.7% hard-hit rate in lefty-lefty matchups. At home against righties a season ago, Cruz recorded a .389 wOBA.

The Pittsburgh Pirates' shortstop is my favorite homer pick from the day games.

Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+520)

It's been a difficult start to Tomoyuki Sugano's MLB career, and Jose Ramirez can take advantage.

Sugano has made three starts and owns a 5.70 SIERA with a lowly 8.1% strikeout rate. With the caveat that it's obviously early, there aren't many positives in Sugano's profile thus far.

Ramirez has four homers already along with a .357 wOBA. He's hitting the ball in the air a ton, sporting a 64.7% fly-ball rate. That may wind up being small-sample noise, but it's not a bad thing to have going for you when you'll be swinging from the left side at Camden Yards.

Our MLB player projections have Ramirez pegged for the third-best HR projection of the day (0.31), making these +520 odds pretty enticing.

Paul Goldschmidt to Hit a Home Run (+480)

Taj Bradley is a good pitcher, but his lefty-righty splits -- in addition to a homer-friendly park in Tampa -- push me toward Paul Goldschmidt's dinger prop.

The right-handed Bradley has reverse splits in his career, with his K rate (24.6%), homers per nine innings (2.23) and wOBA (.336) all significantly worse against right-handers. Those numbers are 30.2%, 1.07 and .307, respectively, versus left-handed bats. He's also a fly-ball pitcher in general, surrendering a 40.3% fly-ball rate for his career.

Plus, Tampa Bay's temporary home looks to be a pretty good spot for offense. Per 2025 park factors, George Steinbrenner Field ranks ninth in home run factor early on.

Goldschmidt was pretty awful in 2024 (.307 wOBA), but he's got some dang good numbers so far this campaign, including a .404 expected wOBA and 38.9% fly-ball rate. He can capitalize on both Bradley's struggles with righties and the homer-friendly stadium.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.