3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 4/14/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Carlos Carrasco is expected to make his third start for the New York Yankees on Monday, and the experienced righty continues to struggle, ranking in the 14th percentile in xERA (6.07), 14th percentile in average exit velocity (92.1 MPH), 34th percentile in strikeout rate (19.2%), 4th percentile in barrel rate (20.5%), and 20th percentile in hard-hit rate (48.7%). Similar to recent years, Carrasco is producing reverse splits early in the new campaign, allowing 4.91 HR/9 and a 2.18 WHIP to right-handed hitters (compared to 2.25 HR/9 and 1.38 WHIP to left-handed hitters).

Given Carrasco's numbers against righties, Bobby Witt Jr. is someone who stands out on the Kansas City Royals as he'll get to play at Yankee Stadium (No. 2 in home run park factor over the past three years) with winds blowing to left field. Witt has played 10 of his first 16 games this season at Kauffman Stadium (No. 25 in home run park factor over the past three years), which is partly why he's logging a -0.054 difference between his SLG and xSLG so far.

Despite Witt notching just one homer across his first 69 plate appearances, he's still 39th in average exit velocity (92.0 MPH) and 20th in hard-hit rate (55.1%), so the power metrics are in a solid place. Additionally, among pitchers with 10-plus innings pitched, Carrasco is giving up the fifth-highest HR/FB rate (23.5%), increasing Witt's chances of sending one over the fence if he can put the ball in the air.

Jonathan Aranda to Hit a Home Run (+680)

We'll be getting warm weather at Steinbrenner Field on Monday, which is shaping up to be a hitter-friendly venue for the Tampa Bay Rays this season. With Tanner Houck giving up plenty of loud contact through his first three starts for the Boston Red Sox, these odds for Jonathan Aranda certainly stood out.

Across 3 starts and 16.1 innings pitched, Houck is in the 23rd percentile in xERA (5.35), 26th percentile in average exit velocity (91.1 MPH), 16th percentile in strikeout rate (14.9%), and 12th percentile in hard-hit rate (53.1%). Houck has surrendered three homers up to this point, and all three of those have come against left-handed batters.

Meanwhile, Aranda's Baseball Savant page resembles the color of a cherry, residing in the 97th percentile in xSLG (.703), 98th percentile in average exit velocity (96.0 MPH), 94th percentile in barrel rate (20.0%), 96th percentile in hard-hit rate (60.0%), and 86th percentile in launch angle sweet spot rate (43.3%). One of the only concerns here is that Houck is generating a 10.4% walk rate through three starts, and Aranda is registering an 11.1% walk rate at the plate, making it possible that Houck doesn't throw enough pitches in the strike zone for Aranda to send one deep.

Mookie Betts to Hit a Home Run (+470)

On the surface, Mookie Betts' power metrics aren't ideal enough to take a chance on him hitting a dinger as he's sporting a forgettable 2.1% barrel rate and 29.8% hard-hit rate. However, Betts and the entire lineup of the Los Angeles Dodgers are in a premier spot to get on track ahead of a meeting with Antonio Senzatela and the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies.

Senzatela was lucky to not give up any earned runs through his first 2 starts and 9.2 innings pitched, but he got shelled in his most recent outing, permitting 8 hits, 8 earned runs, and 2 homers in 4.1 innings of action. On top of that, Senzatela is also flashing reverse splits on the bump in recent seasons, allowing a 2.70 HR/9 and 38.5% flyball rate to righties so far this year (compared to 0.0 HR/9 and an 18.2% flyball rate to lefties).

At the moment, Senzatela is sitting in the 16th percentile in xERA (5.85), 10th percentile in average exit velocity (92.8 MPH), 2nd percentile in strikeout rate (8.8%), 32nd percentile in barrel rate (10.2%), and 4th percentile in hard-hit rate (59.3%). Even when Senzatela exits the contest, Mookie and LA's daunting lineup will get to face a Colorado bullpen that is notching the second-lowest strikeout rate (17.9%), third-worst WHIP (1.68), second-worst SIERA (4.76), and worst HR/9 (2.22).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.