Using Historical Benchmarks to Identify the Best NBA Playoffs and Finals Futures Bets

Gone are the days where we can pencil in a dynasty vs. dynasty NBA Finals matchup before the postseason even begins.

Six different teams have hoisted the Larry O'Brien trophy in as many years. Nearly a third of the league has appeared in the Finals in that span, too.

Parity at the top has allowed three of the 25 most statistically dominant teams in NBA history -- the Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Boston Celtics -- to coexist in the same season.

Can the Thunder or Cavaliers make good on their historic campaigns? Will the Celtics defend the crown? Or -- in line with recent trends -- will a different contender extend their season from spring into summer?

Basketball is ultimately a game of math, and here, we'll use historical trends to help identify which teams are most ripe for playoff success in 2025.

The Formula for NBA Playoff Success

The chalk has run dry in recent NBA seasons -- at least as it relates to seeding.

Only two of the last eight teams to reach the Finals were a one seed. We've even seen a five and eight seed make it to the championship series in back-to-back seasons.

It's a phenomenon that is perhaps an indictment of the tedious 82-game regular season as underlying data suggests those teams were more or less destined for playoff success all along.

Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, and Net Rating are the most basic -- albeit important -- measures for a championship-caliber team. Past that, effective field goal percentage (EFG%), clutch Net Rating, and playoff experience are the key metrics we are to examine.

With that, let's check out the historical benchmarks for teams to reach the NBA Finals and find out which groups made the cut in 2025.

Which Kinds of Teams Typically Make the NBA Finals?

Note: Data via NBA.com. Starting lineups are pulled from Game 1 of the NBA Finals. A play is defined as "clutch" if it occurs in the last five minutes of regulation (or overtime) and the game is within five points. The 2020 NBA bubble season is not included in this data set.

It's no surprise to see that 18 of the last 20 teams to reach the Finals entered the playoffs with a top-10 offense. Other trends that appear par for the course -- 17 of 20 teams fared in the top-7 in net rating and 19 of 20 teams owned a top-9 EFG%.

But what about the 2023 Dallas Mavericks? And the Miami Heat in 2022?

Where those groups faltered in season-long net rating, they made up for in the clutch.

Miami and Dallas ranked second and third, respectively, in clutch net rating prior to making the Finals.

There's no denying that effort and motivation can -- to varying degrees -- be a rare commodity in an 82-game season. Clutch metrics help us identify how teams perform when it matters most. It explains the unexpected runs that Dallas and Miami went on. It also adds some context to the 2022 Celtics -- a team that rated out superbly in every measure except in the clutch, resulting in their ultimate demise.

How can we apply this data to this year's flock of contenders?

Which Teams Make the Cut in 2025?

We know one of two things to be true of the last 20 teams to make the NBA Finals: either they held a top-7 net rating and a top-4 EFG%, or they made up for it via a top-3 clutch net rating (three times) or a top-2 total net rating (once) heading into the postseason.

To account for potential marginal differences, here are the teams that enter the playoffs with a top-10 net rating and a top-8 EFG%, and/or -- in this case, or -- a top-4 clutch net rating.

• Oklahoma City Thunder: 1st Net Rating, 7th EFG%, 4th Clutch Net Rating
• Boston Celtics: 2nd Net Rating, 5th EFG%, 7th Clutch Net Rating
• Cleveland Cavaliers: 3rd Net Rating, 1st EFG%, 2nd Clutch Net Rating
• Denver Nuggets: 9th Net Rating, 2nd EFG%, 3rd Clutch Net Rating
• Indiana Pacers: 13th Net Rating, 4th EFG%, 1st Clutch Net Rating

Only two teams in the big bad West? What about the Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, and Golden State Warriors, three teams that made massive improvements -- be it in house or out of house -- as the season progressed?

Well, we included post All-Star Break Net Rating in the above data set for a reason. Of the last 20 teams to reach the Finals, only two of them jumped more than two spots up from their season-long net rating following the break, and nine teams actually had a worse standing in the second half. That might suggest that late-season adjustments are too little, too late.

But even if we cut those aforementioned teams a break, they still don't have the historical makings of a Finals team once we consider their data in only the second half of the season.

The Lakers rank 15th in net rating, 14th in EFG%, and 16th in clutch net rating since the break. Golden State ranks 3rd, 16th, and 18th in those categories. The Clippers -- to their credit -- fare 4th and 3rd in net rating and EFG% but just 20th in clutch net rating since the break, which would put them in 2022 Celtics territory, as all other Finals teams held a top-13 clutch net rating.

The biggest winner here appears to be the Denver Nuggets with a special shout out to the Indiana Pacers for staying clutch. But these are just the historical benchmarks to reach the Finals. What does it take to win it?

Which Kinds of Teams Typically Win the NBA Finals?

An open and shut case. That's what it takes to win an NBA championship.

The last 10 winners hoisted a top-15 defense, top-6 net rating, top-12 clutch net rating, top-3 EFG%, and a top-13 EFG% allowed heading into the postseason.

Even if we loosen the screws to account for marginal differences and call on teams that come in with a top-20 defense, top-10 net rating, top-15 clutch net rating, top-8 EFG%, and a top-15 EFG% allowed, only three teams come out alive. The usual suspects:

• Oklahoma City Thunder: 1st Net Rating, 4th Clutch Net Rating, 1st Defense, 7th EFG%, 1st EFG% allowed
• Boston Celtics: 2nd Net Rating, 7th Clutch Net Rating, 4th Defense, 5th EFG%, 2nd EFG% allowed
• Cleveland Cavaliers: 3rd Net Rating, 2nd Clutch Net Rating, 8th Defense, 1st EFG%, 3rd EFG% allowed

Where do we go from here?

Well, we have yet to touch on what might be the single most important quality for a championship team: playoff experience.

Of the last 20 teams to make the Finals, the team's starting five had, on average, played a combined 307.5 playoff games heading into the playoffs.

All but one team's starting unit -- the 2015 Warriors (93) -- had at least 129 games of playoff experience under their belt.

Does that spell trouble for the Thunder, whose starting five has logged only 85 combined playoff games?

On one hand, OKC's stunning +12.7 net rating might indicate they are as experience-proof as the original Warriors dynasty. But hindsight has taught us that Golden State's team not only featured two to three future Hall-of-Famers but the greatest shooter to ever grace a basketball court. Are we ready to bucket this Thunder team under a Warriors-esque category just yet?

It doesn't help that OKC has logged only 66 minutes of clutch time this season -- the lowest of any team in a single-season since the NBA started keeping track in 1996. It's to Oklahoma City's credit that they've avoided close games, but the lack of playoff experience paired with that lack of crunch time could end up exposing some of the team's vulnerabilities this postseason.

As for Boston (415 games) and Cleveland (161), each group's starting five comes in with sufficient playoff experience. The Celtics obviously hold the advantage here, especially with Al Horford coming off the bench.

Notably, 35 of the last 40 teams to win the NBA championship had made it to the conference finals (or further) in at least one of the three seasons leading up to their victory. The post-LeBron era of Cleveland basketball has yet to advance past the second round while Boston has made the conference finals (or deeper) in three straight years.

Based on these historical benchmarks, which futures bets stand out for the 2025 NBA playoffs?

Best NBA Futures Bets Entering the 2025 Playoffs

Nuggets to Win The Western Conference (+1300)

No one would be aghast if the red-hot Clippers forced the Nuggets into an early playoff exit. Los Angeles (-118) is currently the favorite to win that series.

But historical benchmarks indicate that it wouldn't be surprising for Denver to make a Finals run, either, and we're getting long enough odds to make it a worthwhile bet.

The last 20 teams to reach the NBA Finals either held a top-7 net rating and a top-9 EFG% or made up for it with a top-3 clutch net rating.

Denver is one of just two teams in the West to check either of those boxes, and they nearly check both with the ninth-best net rating, second-best EFG%, and the third-best clutch net rating.

EFG% is the strongest indicator of postseason success. The last 20 teams to reach the Finals ranked, on average, 3.8 in EFG% and the median standing was 2nd. The Nuggets not only have the best EFG% in the West but also the best EFG% in clutch time.

Oklahoma City is the other team that qualifies, and Denver would theoretically meet up with them in the second round. Oof. Again, it will be an extremely tough road for the Nuggets. But unlike OKC, Denver at least has playoff experience on their side.

It's not easy to get behind a team that fired their coach just days before the playoffs, but siding with Nikola Jokic and his statistically strong team might be the move at +1300 odds.

NBA Finals Exact Result: Celtics to Beat Nuggets (+2900)

While Denver has the typical resume for a Finals team, their 21st-ranked defense and 16th-ranked EFG% allowed has them in line with the runner-ups, such as last year's Mavericks (18th; 17th).

The Celtics check quite literally every box -- be it offense, defense, EFG%, EFG% allowed, clutch net rating, playoff experience, and past deep runs. On top of that, they'll theoretically draw what is likely the easiest second-round matchup among this year's top championship contenders.

Boston is my pick to win this year's NBA Finals (+185), but we can get longer odds if we bet them to do so against the Nuggets.

FanDuel currently considers Celtics vs. Lakers, Celtics vs. Warriors, and Knicks vs. Thunder as more likely Finals matchups than Celtics vs. Nuggets, but the historical data suggests otherwise.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.