3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 4/11/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Bryce Elder was a pitcher to target for homers a season ago, as he ranked in the 21st percentile in average exit velocity (89.9 MPH), 28th percentile in barrel rate (8.7%), and 6th percentile in hard-hit rate (45.3%) en route to logging 1.45 HR/9. Although it's been just one start and 4.0 innings pitched this season, it looks like it will be more of the same for Elder, giving up two long balls and a 16.7% barrel rate against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his season debut.

Although the Tampa Bay Rays aren't known for launching the ball far with the 11th-lowest ISO (.127) to begin the new campaign, Brandon Lowe is one of the lefties in Tampa Bay's lineup that can do plenty of damage. Over his first 47 plate appearances in 2025, Lowe is posting the 24th-best barrel rate (17.6%) and 24th-best hard-hit rate (55.9%), which has led to three dingers so far.

Just a season ago, Elder registered a 1.75 HR/9, 15.7% strikeout rate, and 35.2% flyball rate versus left-handed hitters, compared to a 1.13 HR/9, 25.7% strikeout rate, and 25.0% flyball rate when facing right-handed hitters. Besides Lowe having fantastic power metrics against Elder's primary pitch (sinker), winds are expected to be blowing out in a warm weather environment at Steinbrenner Field on Friday.

Logan O'Hoppe to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Recommending Logan O'Hoppe to hit one over the fence on Friday is more about riding the hot hand than it is about loving the matchup against Ronel Blanco. Across his first 40 plate appearances in 2025, O'Hoppe is hitting for plenty of power, producing the 4th-best barrel rate (26.9%) and 14th-best hard-hit rate (57.7%) in all of baseball, leading to 5 homers already.

It goes without saying that we need the ball to go in the air for a player to hit a home run, and O'Hoppe is also 20th in flyball rate (53.8%), so it's not surprising to see that he's 8th in xSLG (.735) in the early going. Despite Blanco logging just a 33.3% flyball rate through his first two starts this season, he coughed up a 41.9% flyball rate last season, and he's pitched a total of only 6.2 innings so far due to his 16th percentile xERA (5.97) and 8th percentile walk rate (17.6%).

Aside from Blanco's command issues on the mound, only Pete Alonso and Aaron Judge have a higher barrels per plate appearance rate than O'Hoppe (17.5%). Even though pitcher versus batter matchups don't tell the entire story, O'Hoppe is 3-for-6 with 2 doubles, 1 homer, and zero strikeouts against Blanco in his young career.

Lawrence Butler to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Upon joining the New York Mets this season, Griffin Canning appears to be trying to throw his slider a bit more often through his first two starts, which has led to a 0.93 HR/9 over 9.2 innings pitched. Canning surrendered a 1.56 HR/9 or worse in each of his last three seasons, so it remains to be seen if a uniform change is enough for him to suddenly become a starter that can limit hard contact.

Even with Canning's home run numbers looking solid to begin the year, he's still residing in the 26th percentile in average exit velocity (91.4 MPH) and 8th percentile in hard-hit rate (56.0%). Those metrics could lead to forgettable results against Lawrence Butler, who is seeing the ball well, lowering his strikeout rate from 23.9% in 2024 to 15.5% in his first 58 plate appearances in 2025.

While Butler has hit just one homer to begin the season, he's still in the 72nd percentile in barrel rate (12.2%) and 42nd in flyball rate (46.3%). Above all, Sutter Health Park is proving to be a hitter-friendly venue to kick off the 2025 campaign, and Butler has ideal power numbers against Canning's two primary pitches (slider and four-seam fastball).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.