3 Best MLB Bets, Player Props and Home Run Picks for Padres at Dodgers, Game 5

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Over 8.0 Runs (-110)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking like the best bet to take this series as they are -146 straight up tonight, are back at home, and numberFire's MLB projections have the Dodgers winning by about 0.7 runs. Los Angeles also carries the second-shortest World Series odds (+340).

However, there isn't much value in the moneyline for the Dodger Blue. Instead, another game line is catching my eye: over eight runs (-110).

Runs have been the theme of this series, with the San Diego Padres logging 5.3 runs per game, a mark which took a big dip after Game 4's scoreless showing. Meanwhile, L.A. is racking up 5.8 runs per contest. The combined average total of this series 10.8 runs per night.

The Dodgers are putting Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound while veteran Yu Darvish will get the start for the Padres. Not only are these two aces from the Nippon Professional Baseball league (based in Japan), this is also the first matchup between Japanese-born starting pitchers in MLB postseason history. What does the pitching matchup mean for the total?

Yamamoto's numbers are alarming going into this game. After returning from a shoulder injury, he hasn't been the same, finishing the fifth inning in only one of his last five starts. His pitch count hasn't reached 80 during that span, either. Yamamoto's playoff debut was a mess, giving up five earned runs and being pulled in the third inning. This is not a starter performing up to his season-long 3.14 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA); in fact, Yamamoto logged a 6.44 SIERA and 7.02 xFIP in Game 1 of the series.

Darvish turned in a much better performance in Game 2, giving up only one run over seven innings. The vet has completed the seventh inning in three of his past five starts and at least the sixth inning in four of the last five. However, the underlying stats suggest that Darvish isn't that dominant.

For example, he logged a 5.26 SIERA and 5.33 xFIP in Game 2 of the NLDS. He's giving up a concerning 50.0% fly-ball rate in the playoffs, which is a recipe for disaster against the Dodgers -- who lead MLB with a 16.8% home run to fly-ball rate (HR/FB) over the last 30 days. That clip has been even better in the postseason at 18.4% (first among active teams).

Considering the recent offensive production of each team thus far paired with the pitching matchup, the over for the 8.0-run total is my favorite game line for tonight.

Xander Bogaerts to Hit a Single (-110)

It hasn't been the best postseason for Xander Bogaerts as he's holding a .182/.217/.364 slash line over six games. However, he's finally starting to find his footing with a .267 batting average in this series, recording four hits over four contests. His slugging has been a lot better, as well, totaling one double and big fly in the series.

However, I'm looking for Bogaerts to get just a single on Friday night. Our projections are giving Bogaerts the second-highest forecasted singles at 1.00; this right behind Luis Arraez's 1.02 projection (not bad company). If correct, Bogaerts' projection holds a 63.2% implied probability for at least one single (or -172 odds). His current -110 line for a single holds an implied probability of only 52.4%.

In a limited sample size of six career at-bats against Yamamoto, Bogaerts is batting .500 with three hits. Two of the three hits were singles, as well.

Pitch usage provides even more confidence for this pick as Yamamoto's most-used pitches are four-seam fastballs (40.4%), splitters (24.2%), and curveballs (23.1%). Bogaerts is hitting above his season-long .264 batting average against both four-seam fastballs (.362) and curveballs (.286).

Our projections have Bogaerts' chances of hitting single nearly in line with Arraez's, yet Bogaerts is -110 to hit a single while Arraez is -230.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+450)

We mentioned Darvish's 50.0% fly-ball rate in the postseason. This is a major concern against one of baseball's best slugging teams. But the trick is finding who is the best bet to go yard.

Shohei Ohtani always comes to mind, but he's batting only .125 over eight at-bats against Darvish. Max Muncy holds the second-shortest line on the team for a tater (+320), but that .188 batting average in this series isn't something to bet on. Mookie Betts has struggled with a .186 average over 43 at-bats against Darvish.

Is there anyone in this lineup poised for success?

Look no further than Freddie Freeman.

He's expected to play tonight after missing Game 4 with an ankle injury. His splits aren't too shabby against Darvish (.250/.318/.550). Hitting well against sliders is key when facing Darvish as Yu's slider is his most-used pitch (23.1%) while the sweeper isn't too far behind (14%). Freeman carries a .287 batting average against sliders this season. Darvish also peppers in a four-seam fastball (19.0%), and Freeman has 12 of his 22 homers against four-seamers this season.

Dating back to the regular season, Darvish gave up six dingers over his final five starts. He also surrendered 2.2 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) against left-handed hitters during the span. His 53.1% fly-ball rate and 17.6% HR/FB allowed in the split don't provide any comfort.

Someone will likely take advantage of Darvish's tendency to allow long balls, and Freeman has decent head-to-head numbers while hitting well against Darvish's most-used pitches.

Postseason baseball is in full swing! All customers get a 30% Profit Boost Token to use on any MLB playoff game happening October 11th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.