3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 4/15/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds

Under 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-125)

On paper, this game looks like a pitching duel. Both offenses might help put pen to that paper.

The Seattle Mariners might benefit from a Luis Castillo revenge game. Castillo's in good form with a 2.92 ERA pretty well-supported by a 3.91 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and he's doing it with a massive groundball rate (52.1%) rather than swings and misses.

Of course, the Cincinnati Reds, famous for losing three straight games 1-0 earlier this season, have a dismal .634 team OPS against righties (25th in MLB) despite getting to play half their games in tonight's hitter-friendly venue.

Nick Lodolo is a good answer from the home side, though. His 0.96 ERA has come by way of suppressing hard contact (36.1% rate allowed), and the M's struggle against southpaws. Their 75 wRC+ against them is poor, and a 29.9% K rate in the split might give a boost to what's been an odd beginning to the year from Lodolo in the punchout column. He's totaled just 8 Ks despite 12.3 K/9 in his last full, healthy campaign.

Cincinnati's bullpen has been dodgy -- at best -- to start 2025, but this first-five total is too high given the quality of starters at hand. Game venue is a worry, but these offenses would struggle to plate runs on Mars at present.

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies -1.5 (+126)

After a 10-4 loss in this series' opener, the Philadelphia Phillies can swing the pendulum their way today.

Given San Francisco Giants starter Justin Verlander has gotten to face the aforementioned Reds twice, his numbers are a bit concerning in his age-42 campaign. He's allowed 1.38 HR/9 behind elevated flyball (40.0%) and hard-hit (40.0%) rates in a small sample. I'll admit a 16.0% swinging-strike rate is an intriguing show of stuff, but he'll need every bit of it against the Phils.

Philadelphia has a .732 team OPS against righties since the start of last season (8th in MLB), and their home park is above average for offense (13th).

On the other side, newly acquired Jesus Luzardo has shined with a 2.34 SIERA. His hot start meets a Giants club with just an 89 wRC+ against lefties this season (18th in MLB), showing poor performance even adjusting for their park.

Everything seems to slant toward the home side, and the Phils' home setback yesterday was unusual. They're 5-2 against the run line at Citizens Bank this year.

Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals

Astros Moneyline (-126)

Erick Fedde's start to the season has been uneven -- at best. This could be the spot that a Houston Astros lineup we know to be strong finds its footing.

Fedde's 6.62 SIERA has come with poor marks in both strikeout rate (8.8%) and walk rate (14.0%), and his barrel rate is 1.5 percentage points higher than last year's. The St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen also has the league's ninth-highest xFIP (4.26) in the early going.

Houston's hard-hit rate against righties (31.3%) is still 14th in MLB, so they're swinging it decently well despite bad results.

On the flip side, the 'Stros probably don't need to score too many runs with Hunter Brown taking the bump. Though it's a difficult matchup for Brown's strikeout prop, he has a 2.54 SIERA overall and has done an outstanding job limiting hard contact (27.4% rate allowed). Some strikeout-heavy pitchers struggle without getting Ks, but Brown has been dominant across the board.

Fedde presents a great opportunity for Brown to bank a deserved win. Houston is somehow just 1-2 straight up in his three excellent starts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.