3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Monday 4/14/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies

Over 8.5 Runs (-122)

The Philadelphia Phillies aren't on the best stretch by losing three of the last four. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants are 3-1 over the previous four contests. The starting pitcher matchup should mean scoring success for both teams, though.

When facing left-handed pitchers, San Francisco touts a .279 weighted on-base average (wOBA), which is the 10th-lowest mark. However, its wOBA jumps to .322 when facing righties (12th-highest). The Giants are licking their chops ahead of tonight's meeting against right-handed Taijuan Walker.

While Walker has yet to allow a run through two starts, his 4.34 xFIP and 4.08 SIERA suggest regression is imminent. Plus, San Francisco is in the top five of runs above average against splitters and sinkers, which make up two of Walkers' three most-used pitches. Philadelphia's bullpen holding the 11th-highest ERA (4.27) is another check for San Fran's chances of scoring.

For the Phillies, they have put up better numbers against southpaws with a .318 wOBA (9th-highest) compared to .310 when facing right-handed hurlers (14th-lowest). Landen Roupp is also off to an excellent start with a 3.09 xFIP and 3.34 SIERA over two starts. However, his most-used pitches are a poor matchup -- similar to Walker. Philly is in the top 10 of runs above average against curveballs and sinkers, which make up over 73% of Roupp's pitches.

The over has hit in four straight Giants games. This is something I expect to keep up tonight.

Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees

Yankees Moneyline (-142)

It's been far from an ideal start for the New York Yankees as they are 2-5 over their last seven contests. The Kansas City Royals are looking for their footing, too, with a 2-3 record over the previous five. With Seth Lugo and Carlos Carrasco on the mound tonight, what is the best bet for this matchup?

Lugo is providing his usual play with a 3.24 ERA through three outings paired with a decent 4.37 xFIP. While this is nothing special, it's still a major difference compared to Carrasco's 7.71 ERA over three appearances.

However, Carrasco's ERA is misleading considering his 3.94 SIERA and 4.14 xFIP. In fact, these advanced numbers suggest he's bound to put up better numbers than Lugo. Plus, the Royals have the second-lowest wOBA (.266) and ninth-fewest runs scored (42) when facing right-handed pitchers in 2025.

Additionally, the Yankees boast the sixth-most runs above average when facing four-seam fastballs and curveballs, which are Lugo's most-used pitches thus far. Kansas City also has the seventh-fewest runs above average against sinkers, and Carrasco has a 28.2% usage rate (second-highest) for his sinker early in the 2025 season. The Royals' bullpen even has the 12th-highest xFIP (4.02) thus far, causing even more concern against this New York batting order that's scored the second-most runs (95).

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres

Padres Over 4.5 Runs (+138)

Perhaps my most-anticipated Monday contest takes place between the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres. Chicago has the league's most runs scored by a wide margin (116) and is 7-3 over the last 10. Meanwhile, San Diego touts the best record in baseball at 13-3 while going 10-0 at home.

Jameson Taillon has a 6.06 ERA over three starts, but his 3.99 SIERA and 4.03 xFIP are actually solid. However, his four-seam fastball and cutter are his most-used pitches by a decent margin. The Padres boast the fourth-most runs above average against fastballs and sixth-most when seeing cutters. San Diego has hit even better against righties with the second-highest wOBA in the split (.352) compared to the eighth-highest when facing left-handed pitchers.

Taillon also has an alarming 2.20 home runs allowed per nine innings, and the Padres have the seventh-highest slugging percentage. Even if Taillon is pulled early, the Cubs will remain in trouble, for their bullpen has a 4.52 xFIP (sixth-highest).

San Diego has reached at least five runs in 5 of the last 10 (50.0%). That's something I'm willing to take a swing on considering the +138 odds for over 4.5 runs has only a 42.0% implied probability.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.