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3 Best College Football Bets and Predictions for Week 10

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3 Best College Football Bets and Predictions for Week 10

Each week in college football, there are tons of games available to us.

While this can be a bit overwhelming, it also gives us plentiful spots we can target when searching for betting value. From the biggest games of the week all the way on down, we're never lacking for options.

Week 10's slate offers less than usual. A disappointing season from the Nittany Lions is contributing to the underwhelming schedule as Saturday's Penn State-Ohio State matchup lacks its typical stakes. As usual, the SEC is carrying the water for this week's top games.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?

All college football betting odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Week 10 Betting Picks

Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State

Ohio State -20.5 (-110)

Prior to the season, the Penn State Nittany Lions visiting the Ohio State Buckeyes was expected to be a massive showdown. The potential top-five matchup was spoiled by Penn State's meltdown, losing four consecutive games. Coach James Franklin was fired, and quarterback Drew Allar is out for the season.

Meanwhile, Ohio State has continued to roll, leading the nation in NET EPA per play (via Game On Paper). Both factors have led to the Buckeyes being favored by 20.5 points. How should we bet this matchup?


OSU's been a walking cover this season, going 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS). Even dating back to last campaign's postseason run, the Buckeyes are 10-0-1 ATS over their last 11 games. Paired with the Nittany Lions going 1-6 ATS this season and 1-3 during their four-game losing streak, I'm firmly on Ohio State to cover.

PSU ranks 46th in rush-play rate while ranking 14th in expected points added (EPA) per rushing attempt, compared to 83rd in EPA per dropback. The Buckeyes are ceding only 2.7 yards per carry (7th-fewest) while ranking 17th in EPA per carry allowed.

During the four-game losing streak, the Lions have permitted 202.3 rushing yards per game and now rank 54th in EPA per rushing attempt. While OSU is posting only 4.1 yards per carry (72nd), it still has an efficient rusher in lead back Bo Jackson (6.4 yards per rushing attempt).

If the Buckeyes' run game is working alongside OSU sitting third in EPA per dropback, Penn State's defense is likely in for a long day. Capped by Ohio State ranking in the top 7 of third-down conversion rate on both offense and defense, the Buckeyes should dominate this one with PSU outside of the top 50 in third-down conversion rate on both sides of the ball.

No. 5 Georgia at Florida

Florida Over 20.5 Points (-122)

One of Week 10's top matchups is a rivalry game between the Georgia Bulldogs and Florida Gators. This will be Florida's first game since firing coach Billy Napier. Meanwhile, Georgia has won three consecutive games while going 3-0 ATS.

Georgia's clear weakness is its pass defense, which ranks 94th in EPA per dropback allowed while ceding 6.9 yards per passing attempt (52nd). The Gators seem to lack the answer, though, averaging only 6.8 yards per passing attempt (85th) while sitting 114th in EPA per dropback. Quarterback DJ Lagway continues to provide up-and-down play, coming off a two-interception showing.

Florida Total Points

Over
Nov 1 7:30pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

While Lagway has turnover concerns, UGA forces only 0.8 takeaways per contest (109th). Lagway still carries a decent 61.8 Pro Football Focus passing grade and is averaging 272.0 passing yards per game over the last three. He could have plenty of time in the pocket, too, as the Dawgs rank 126th in PFF's pass rush grade.

The Gators aren't afraid to lean on the pass, holding a 54.5% pass-play rate (27th). Florida's passing game should have enough juice to expose Georgia's weakness, leading to over 20.5 points for the Gators.

No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee

Tennessee Over 28.5 (-118)

After losing 34-26 as 5.5-point favorites against the Mississippi Rebels, the Oklahoma Sooners' postseason hopes may be done as they own +630 odds to make the College Football Playoff. OU could play the spoiler this week, though, as Tennessee holds +310 odds to appear in the playoff. Another loss for the Volunteers could be the kiss of death.

This will mostly be advertised as a good-on-good matchup with the Sooners allowing the 5th-fewest NET EPA per play while the Vols total the 17th-most EPA per play on offense. However, Oklahoma just gave up 34 points and 315 passing yards last week.

Tennessee Total Points

Over
Nov 1 11:30pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Sooners' rush defense is still strong, permitting 2.4 yards per carry (second-fewest) and the seventh-fewest EPA per rushing attempt. Ole Miss posting more than 300 passing yards a week ago could reveal the key to success, though. UT has a capable passing attack, one that averages 9.2 yards per passing attempt (7th-most) while sitting 17th in EPA per dropback.

Oklahoma's D ranks 15th in PFF's pass rush grade and carries the highest sack rate in college football. Joey Aguilar should have enough time in the pocket, though, as the Volunteers rank 6th in pass block grade and 23rd in sack rate allowed.

If Aguilar has time, he has the matchup to hit big plays downfield. The Sooners also rank 84th in red zone scoring rate allowed, meaning Tennessee has an angle to finish drives.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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