3 Best College Football Bets and Player Props for Miami at Florida State

Since beating the No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish on a game-winning field goal in their season opener, the No. 3 Miami (FL) Hurricanes have cruised over their last three games, defeating their opponents by a combined score of 120-22. After losing in 46-38 shootout against the Virginia Cavaliers last week, can the No. 18 Florida State Seminoles return home and hand the Hurricanes their first loss in 2025?

Whenever these teams met a season ago, it was Miami who emerged victorious en route to a 36-14 win, but Florida State was a drastically different team then -- finishing the 2024 campaign with a forgettable 2-10 record. With the Seminoles looking to bounce back and get their revenge on the Hurricanes, which bets and player props stand out for Saturday's showdown that kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET?

All college football betting odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Miami at Florida State Betting Picks

Over 53.5 (-115)

At least on paper, the Hurricanes and Seminoles deploy stout defenses, with both units ranking 45th or better in success rate and 41st or better in net expected points added per play allowed. However, Miami and Florida State both feature offenses that excel at keeping drives alive and moving the chains, pushing me toward the over in a pivotal ACC clash.

With transfer quarterback Carson Beck, the Hurricanes are 29th in early down expected points added per play (0.14), 27th in third/fourth down success rate (51.9%), and 8th in overall offensive success rate (51.6%). Meanwhile, the Seminoles -- with transfer quarterback Tommy Castellanos -- are 13th in early down expected points added per play (0.20), 2nd in third/fourth down success rate (63.3%), and 5th in overall offensive success rate (53.0%).

After giving up 46 points to Virginia last week, it's tough to gauge just how good this Florida State defense is, and they've now been involved in three straight games where 76-plus points have been scored. Even though both defenses could come up with plays here and there, this is a perfect time for both offenses to lean on their experienced signal-callers as the outcome of this game could alter these program's playoff dreams.

Malachi Toney Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Aside from the season opener against Notre Dame, Beck and Miami's offense hasn't really been tested yet and forced to put the ball in the air often. With the Seminoles needing to avoid falling to 3-2 -- and 0-2 in conference play -- I expect the Hurricanes to be pushed a bit more, which is why Malachi Toney could be in for a busy day.

Toney has emerged as Beck's go-to target, earning the most targets (27), receptions (22), receiving yards (268), and yards per route run (2.63) among Miami's skill players who have logged 30-plus passing snaps, per PFF. On top of that, Toney has tallied 66-plus receiving yards in three of his first four starts in 2025.

While Florida State is 41st in expected points added per drop back allowed (-0.13) and 67th in yards per drop back allowed (6.36), they struggled to make tackles in their loss to Virginia, so Toney could have some opportunities to generate yards after the catch. Along with Toney averaging a modest 6.5 yards after the catch per reception, Miami has NFL-level talent along their offensive line and Beck gets the ball out fast, which should increase the number of looks Toney gets on Saturday.

Tommy Castellanos Anytime Touchdown (+120)

Before last week's loss to the Cavaliers, Castellanos was playing efficient football, completing 71.1% of his passes for 594 yards, 3 touchdowns, and only 1 interception. Castellanos would complete a season-worst 56.3% of his attempts against Virginia, and his two interceptions proved to be costly in a double-overtime defeat.

That being said, Castellanos is also a threat with his legs, generating 217 yards and another 4 touchdowns on 41 carries this season, and the Seminoles are going to need him to create some magic against a formidable Miami defense. In their two biggest games of the year so far against Alabama and Virginia, Florida State has had Castellanos carry the ball 14-plus times in both contests, so he's a candidate to score a rushing touchdown in a crucial home game.

Across his first four starts for the Seminoles, Castellanos has posted at least one rushing touchdown in three of those contests, including a score against Alabama and Virginia. Look for Castellanos to utilize his legs often for a Florida State squad that can't afford to lose two consecutive games to conference opponents.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.