3 Best Bets to Win the 2025 Belmont Stakes

Key Takeaways:

• Baeza (4-1) is a strong 2025 Belmont Stakes contender, coming off a troubled but impressive third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby and now benefits from a better post and top jockey Flavien Prat.
• Sovereignty (2-1), the Kentucky Derby winner, skipped the Preakness to rest and prep for the Belmont Stakes, and looks well-positioned for another strong effort from off the pace.
• Journalism (8-5), winner of the Preakness and second in the Derby, is the only horse running in all three Triple Crown races, but faces questions about stamina and freshness against rested rivals.

The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes happens Saturday, June 7, at Saratoga Race Course. This is the second of two years that the race will be contested upstate at the shortened distance of 1 ¼ miles. This time next year, construction will be far enough along at Belmont Park such that the Belmont Stakes will be back home at Belmont Park, and back to its usual 1 ½-mile trip.

But, for now, we’re back at the Spa. The good news about the Saratoga distance is that several of the eight in the 2025 Belmont Stakes field have tried 1 ¼ miles or something close to it already, since it is the same distance as the Kentucky Derby, and just 1 1/16 mile longer than the Preakness and the UAE Derby (G2).

And, that eight-horse field for Saturday’s race includes some very good horses. The trifecta from the Kentucky Derby comes back for the Belmont Stakes: Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza. Rodriguez, who was entered in the Kentucky Derby but had to scratch due to a foot issue, is back in the fray. Hill Road and Uncaged come from the Peter Pan Stakes (G3), Preakness contestant Heart of Honor tries to bounce back, and Crudo steps up in class from an impressive win in the Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard.

When it comes to 2025 Belmont Stakes best picks, considerations include class, stamina, running style, and, of course, the odds you’re likely to get on the tote board. These are the top contenders in the final leg of the Triple Crown.

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1. Baeza (2025 Belmont Stakes odds: 4-1)

Yes, we all know how well related he is for 1 ¼ miles—Baeza is a McKinzie half-brother to both 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. (Dornoch’s win in last year’s race came at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga Race Course, just like this year’s edition.) But, without actually trying the distance, pedigree is only potential. The great news is that Baeza put up an excellent effort to finish third in the Kentucky Derby.

Baeza was hung out in the parking lot for the Kentucky Derby: he had to draw

in off the also-eligible list, guaranteeing him a far-outside post position. So, he lost ground early. He ran into serious traffic on the far turn, getting snarled up between horses. He was even green in the lane, wandering out as he ran home. But he finished fast, looking like he reveled in every inch of the mile and a quarter. He even almost caught Journalism for second.

This time, instead of breaking from the parking lot, he has a much more reasonable middle post in a smaller field, meaning less potential for both ground loss and trip trouble. And, as far off the pace as he came from in the Kentucky Derby, judging from his form in California, he does not have to run that way to be effective.

It is also a major positive that he has Flavien Prat in the irons. Prat not only rode Baeza for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, but he is the best big-race rider in horse racing right now. When the spotlight shines brightest, he always seems to show up. And, when it comes to jockeys’ rates of placing well in Triple Crown races, no one beats him. That even goes for the Belmont Stakes—even though he still seeks his first victory in the final jewel of the Triple Crown, he has never finished worse than fourth despite riding a mix of heavy hitters and longer shots.

2. Sovereignty (2025 Belmont Stakes odds: 2-1)

We knew quickly that there would be no Triple Crown winner possible in 2025 since trainer Bill Mott announced soon after the run for the roses that Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty would not run in the Preakness Stakes, but rather go straight to Saratoga and prepare for the Belmont Stakes. It wasn’t a huge surprise—after all, he announced soon after the race the other time he won it, in 2019 with Country House, that the Preakness Stakes was not in the cards.

Prep for the Belmont went far better with Sovereignty than with Country House, of course. The latter came out of the Derby with some issues and never raced again, while Sovereignty has been back on the work tab, and things appear all systems go.

From a pace perspective, the best thing that could have happened for Sovereignty was Todd Pletcher announcing that Crudo would be entered. Sovereignty has done his best work from off the pace—and though he has been able to run well even without a truly torrid pace behind him, it’s better that there are two horses in the field who are only really proven on the front end than if Rodriguez looked like lone speed on paper.

Furthermore, he finished so well in the Kentucky Derby that he looks like a real Classic-distance horse. Even though Journalism was a little more forward at Churchill Downs, Sovereignty not only got moving in time under jockey Junior Alvarado, but outran him in the final furlong to win by daylight. Returning to the same distance, especially with a little more rest than Journalism got, could be a great recipe for finishing ahead again.

3. Journalism (2025 Belmont Stakes odds: 8-5)

Preakness Stakes winner Journalism will be the only horse to contest all three Triple Crown races. It’s a little surprising, given his trainer Michael McCarthy’s cautious reputation, but it’s surprising in a good way. After Journalism ran second in the Kentucky Derby, McCarthy waited a few days and then declared he was good to go for the Preakness. He won in dazzling fashion—he was bottled up in upper stretch, Gosger looked gone, but Journalism and jockey Umberto Rispoli were not only able to bull through fearlessly, but find enough to reel in the leader.

Leading into the Belmont Stakes, it was more of the same. Journalism was shipped to Saratoga Race Course, but McCarthy waited to make a decision until he knew what his horse’s form looked like. Then, about a week out, he declared Journalism good to go. The decision felt very similar in form to the decision about the Preakness, and we all know how well that turned out.

The questions are whether the demands of the Triple Crown season will catch up this time as he faces seven fresher horses, as well as the pace setup. It should be a positive that Journalism is likely to get the jump on Sovereignty – but that was the case in the Kentucky Derby, too, and Sovereignty finished better at 1 ¼ miles. Even so, Journalism is a classy and consistent horse, and it would be a surprise for him to miss the board in the Belmont Stakes.

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