UFC 316 DFS Picks: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2, taking place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday.

UFC 316 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Azamat Murzakanov ($21)

We've seen some crazy upsets in UFC, but you can have my coin if Murzakanov, a ranked light heavyweight that is a perfect 5-0 with UFC, ends up finding a way to lose to Brendson Ribeiro on short notice. "The Professional" has dropped all five of those foes, and it's not like Ribeiro's -0.38 striking success rate (SSR) is a polished, unbeatable mark. Murzakanov's 83% takedown D should keep this fight in his office, too.

Joo Sang Yoo ($19)

Jeka Saragih's lack of grappling skills seem primed for an early exit from the promotion. He was finished on the ground in both of his UFC losses, and in hindsight, the Indonesian fighter was a bit fortunate to clip Lucas Alexander (1-3 UFC) in 91 seconds. Undefeated newcomer Joo Sang Yoo appears to have the requisite grappling skills necessary to pass this entry-level test, and his durability hasn't been a question mark on the regional scene.

Joe Pyfer ($19)

Food poisoning got the best of Pyfer at UFC Mexico, canceling his fight on the day of the event. Recovered from that, I still think his size and finishing skills are enough to handle Kelvin Gastelum. The undersized underdog would do well to survive Pyfer's 1.56% knockdown rate (KD%) and 0.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes. There's a reason I'm betting on "Bodybagz" by an early finish in my UFC 316 best bets; I've got it modeled 50.9% likely to happen.

Wang Cong ($18)

Playing with her food, Wang Cong was dropped and finished in a fight she was dominating against Gabi Fernandes last fall. The response against Bruna Brasil was a +71 striking differential in 15 minutes with a pair of takedowns landed. I see "The Joker" as a top-five flyweight in the world, so flawed veteran Ariana da Silva (6-7 UFC) feels like a stepping stone. da Silva's striking (53%) and takedown (68%) defense inconsistencies have led to four of her seven defeats coming via early finish.

Khaos Williams ($16)

High-level experience is worth its weight in gold in UFC. Williams' five wins over multi-time UFC winners (four KOs) are a huge edge over Andreas Gustafsson in his short-notice UFC debut. Khaos is still three years younger, too. Despite the win, Gustafsson's 43% striking D was concerningly low in his Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) bout, and his striking efficiency will surely suffer ceding four inches of reach to one of welterweight's most potent power threats.

Value Plays to Target

Waldo Cortes-Acosta ($14)

My model has Cortes-Acosta a slight favorite (50.1%) over Serghei Spivac in a striker-versus-grappler battle where both men could look like they should have been -500 to win. Without showing any liability to submissions yet, I've got Waldo 24.5% likely to win via early finish compared to just 15.0% for the Moldovan favorite. That's enough to take the plunge in DFS amidst what is easily the card's closest fight on paper.

Mark Choinski ($13)

Newcomer Mark "The Shark" Choinski has a wrestling and grappling background, so he's got to be licking his chops in this matchup. MarQuel Mederos survived to win a split decision in his last fight, but he surrendered two takedowns, 7:54 in control time, and a deep, dangerous submission attempt to Austin Hubbard (4-7 UFC). Choinski's level of competition isn't great on the regional scene, but Mederos' UFC schedule also leaves a ton to be desired.

Vicente Luque ($12)

Though some are trepidatious of Vicente Luque's previous brain injury, he's 2-1 since those battles in three fights against multi-time UFC winners. Kevin Holland's up-and-down career has certainly been better in this weight class (170), but he's also faced a ton of old dudes in it. Is a dangerous, well-rounded, ranked fighter like Luque worth a dart here? I think so. He's 46.5% likely to win in my model, which is way, way likelier than the betting odds suggest.

Yanal Ashmouz ($11)

I generally think Quillan Salkilld is going to be a good UFC fighter, but these odds because of a highlight knockout against an overmatched Anshul Jubli (0-2 UFC) are hysterical. Yanal Ashmouz is 2-1 against three multi-time UFC winners, and he's never lost inside the distance as a pro. Sallkilld's DWCS fight, a decision win over Gauge Young (0-1 UFC), is more likely how this bout on Saturday will look, but don't discount "The Red Fox" finding a way to get his hand raised as the 'dog.

Bruno Silva ($8)

Here come the boos already. Fan favorite Joshua Van is a -700 favorite over 35-year-old Bruno Silva, who lost via knockout to a top-five contender last December. The 'dog is just simply too dangerous to ignore at this salary with a division-best 2.17% knockdown rate, and it's not like Van, 23, has been perfect. Last July, Van posted a -21 striking differential in a third-round knockout loss to Charles Johnson. "Bulldog" Silva has even more power and should be extremely contrarian.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.