UFC 316 Best Bets and Props: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2, taking place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey on Saturday.

UFC 316 Betting Picks

Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Cortes-Acosta to Win (+118)

I love these results from my model. Rounded to 50.0%, you can flip a coin between Serghei Spivac and Waldo Cortes-Acosta, so it should be a great fight.

That leaves some unnerving value on "Salsa Boy". Cortes-Acosta hasn't faced a wrestling threat since a unanimous loss to Marcos Rogerio de Lima in August 2023. He surrendered three takedowns and 5:01 in control to de Lima, and Spivac's grappling analytics and credentials are superior.

However, controlling Robelis Despaigne (1-2 UFC) with three takedowns for north of nine minutes was an encouraging sign that WCA is rounding out his grappling skills in addition to a boxing background. His last effort, a +43 striking differential and Round 2 knockout of Ryan Spann (8-6 UFC), was one of his best yet.

Spivac's 48% striking D has wilted before, and he's just 2-4 against currently ranked heavyweights.

Betting markets dictated my action on this bout. Waldo was -102 on Sunday, and anyone who reads my column weekly knows that I'm not just willing to but love to fade the consensus hive mind that inflates lines off tape study throughout the week.

Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van

Silva by KO/TKO (+1000)

23-year-old Joshua Van has become a diehard fan favorite. This line is still ridiculous.

In July 2024, Van was a consensus -245 favorite over Charles Johnson (6-5 UFC) before dropping the first round and getting knocked out cold in Round 3. Johnson's ordinary results since that fight don't inspire hope that Van should be a prohibitive favorite inside the rankings against Bruno Silva.

"Bulldog" was bested by flyweight's next title challenge, Manel Kape, last December in Tampa. He's still the flyweight rankings' leader in knockdown rate (2.17 KD%) and stopped Cody Durden (6-5-1 UFC) with punches just 11 months ago. Van didn't finish Durden despite a +95 striking differential, showing these two's gap in power.

The Brazilian underdog will always have a puncher's chance, and this is the first true test of Van's chin since that shocking loss by knockout.

I've modeled Silva 41.9% likely to win this fight, and 28.8% of the time, it comes via knockout. I have to take this small value sprinkle when Van's fan-friendly aura has inflated this line.

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

Pyfer Wins Inside the Distance (+110)

Outside of Joe Pyfer getting food poisoning, nothing has changed in my analysis of this canceled matchup from UFC Mexico two months ago.

Pyfer's had enough time to fully recover and re-rack this stellar matchup for him. Kelvin Gastelum's latest failed foray to 170 pounds has forced him to 185 pounds, and UFC matchmakers clearly insist he fights Pyfer. "Bodybagz" is large for middleweight himself, so he'll enjoy five inches of height and four inches of reach over Gastelum.

The favorite simply has tools to finish this fight. His huge 1.56 KD% also has come with 0.90 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Even though Gastelum has never been knocked out as a pro, he's been submitted twice in his last seven fights.

My model prefers knockout (33.8%) to a submission (17.1%), but K.G.'s legendary durability is doing us a huge favor on this line. He's now 33 facing one of the division's most potent finishers, so this line should be closer to even money.

Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison

Fight Starts Round 4 (-112)
Harrison in Round 4, 5, or by Decision (+130)

My model's criteria is 40 octagon minutes. I've pushed the boundaries in main events and title fights before to hit-and-miss success, but I do agree with its take here.

Julianna Pena is as tough as a two-dollar steak. She was submitted twice earlier in her 11-fight UFC career, but she's now survived or won over 58 consecutive minutes in title fights that weren't always going her way. Pulling off one of UFC's largest upsets ever against Amanda Nunes, counting her completely out against Kayla Harrison is foolish.

There's just a reason she's the card's largest underdog. Pena's 23% takedown D is horrendous, and Harrison, a former gold medalist in Judo, primarily wrestles. So far in UFC, Harrison has landed 2.75 takedowns per 15 minutes with 30% accuracy because she struggled -- as many have -- to crack Ketlen Vieira's 88% takedown D.

I just am not sure Harrison is this "dominant finisher" she's billed as in betting markets. She submitted 42-year-old Holly Holm in her UFC debut, but she's now gone the distance in four of her last seven including her time with PFL, which was against much worse competition.

This fight seems primed to become Harrison conserving energy from a massive weight cut with takedowns she easily gathers.

It might not be an entertaining bout if my model's result is correct. I've forecasted this fight going the distance in 75.8% of outcomes, and Harrison wins the decision 49.2% of the time.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley

O'Malley to Win (+220)
O'Malley by Points (+600)

Even after watching Merab Dvalishvili not really break a sweat to beat Sean O'Malley last September, that betting line was more appropriate than this one.

Excuses fly after fighters lose, but O'Malley did go under the knife for a shoulder injury that likely didn't help him grapple. With that said, "Suga" was still just one convincing round from actually retaining his title, winning the first and fifth round on a majority of cards. It's because Merab just doesn't put enough offense out there to ever justify a betting line like this.

Dvalishvili was an underdog in his first two title bouts, which made a pedestrian 4.36 significant strikes landed per minute more tolerable. Even after 25 minutes of disappointment, O'Malley's +3.22 striking success rate (SSR) towers over Merab's (+1.85) and shows how comfortably he wins a few minutes that stay at distance.

Merab can win holding people. It's just a dangerous game to play as judging criteria continues to favor damage over control.

Quietly, "The Machine" is also 34 years old, and his style is not one that, typically, ages gracefully. O'Malley -- right at the historical median championship age of 30 -- seems to be maturing and improving.

Before September's bout, I had O'Malley a favorite to win 61.5% of the time. His performance there has knocked him back to 51.9%, but this line is a wild overreaction.

There also wasn't any sort of moment of danger for either guy in the first bout, so this fight going to the distance 77.8% of the time in the model also invites a play on Suga's decision prop.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the UFC betting odds for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.