3 Best Bets for Tuesday's Subway Series Matchup: Mets at Yankees (7/25/23)

Although there have been various iterations, NYC's Subway Series on the baseball diamond always provides raucous action.

After splitting two games at Citi Field this past June, the New York Mets (46-53) will make the short 10-mile trip around Rikers Island to meet the New York Yankees (53-47) at Yankee Stadium. From Queens to the Bronx, the 7X to D subway trains will take you between venues in just over an hour: bing bong!

New York City is scheduled for a balmy day in the upper 80 degrees tomorrow, which could translate to significant carry for a game at 7:05 p.m. ET inside an intimately confined ballpark. We'll see if the conditions present an early crowd or one wistfully making its way back from Jones Beach.

To get the baseball week started on the right note, let us take a glimpse into the markets at FanDuel Sportsbook to find the three best bets for Tuesday's Mets-Yankees game.

In case you were wondering, the Yankees lead the all-time series versus the Mets, 79-61. Of course, that is without factoring in the 2000 World Series.

All MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Mets Moneyline (-118)

Transparently, both the Mets and Yanks are having disappointing seasons. As the only two MLB teams in 2023 with payrolls over $275 million, neither side is currently within the top-three spots of their respective divisions.

Regardless, someone has to win this evening. The visiting Metropolitans will send future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander to the mound while the Yankees are scheduled to start "Mr. Perfect Game 2023" Domingo German -- both men have SIERAs north of 4.00 this season.

For the Yankees (who are 19-23 since June began), the best news they have received post-All-Star break is that Aaron Judge (toe) is finally working out against live pitching; the Bronx Bombers are 23-28 in his absence this year. The reigning AL MVP may be nearing a return, but I would not expect it to happen on Tuesday versus the Mets.

Circling back, I don't anticipate the fact that German is currently surrendering 1.57 homers per nine innings (HR/9) to help his cause on a warm night at Yankee Stadium. For comparison, Verlander -- in a down season -- is allowing only 0.98 HR/9.

With both sides coming back from a night off on Monday, I am riding with Verlander and the Mets moneyline tonight.

Over 8.5 Runs (-102)

As alluded to, the hitting conditions should be favorable on a summer evening. Weather aside, Yankee Stadium is especially friendly to batters considering it showcases the second-shortest right field line in MLB at 314-feet -- gotta love that short porch.

For slugging left-handed hitters in this contest like Anthony Rizzo, Jake Bauers, Francisco Lindor (switch-hitter), Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil and Dan Vogelbach, they will have the platoon advantage against the starting righties on the hill, as well as a dimensional one. Still, strong New York right-handed hitters like Pete Alonso, DJ LeMahieu, Francisco Alvarez, Gleyber Torres, Mark Canha and Giancarlo Stanton should be able to use the small ballpark just fine, too.

Despite one having thrown a perfect game less than a month ago and the other eventually headed for Cooperstown, German (4.02 SIERA this season) and Verlander (4.56 SIERA) have not had their sharpest stuff in 2023 and both are showing WHIPs above 1.00.

Truthfully, all signs seem to point toward a fair amount of run production in the Bronx -- give me over 8.5.

Francisco Lindor To Hit A Home Run (+400)

Complementing my play on over 8.5 runs in this contest, let's have a little fun with a homer prop.

As mentioned, I am targeting left-handed bats. Being that the righty German is starting on the hill, that means the switch-hitting Lindor will take his initial hacks lefty.

In 2023, Lindor has 11 home runs off right-handed pitching compared to 8 against southpaws. Again, he will benefit greatly from Yankee Stadium's short porch in right field when swinging lefty.

For reference, Lindor is without a homer since going back-to-back days with a long ball on July 6th and 7th. Still, he is currently showcasing a career-high Statcast hard-hit rate of 45.2%.

Bluntly, I am saying that Lindor is due. Given the park, weather conditions, and opposing pitcher, Lindor seems like a valuable choice to leave the yard at +400 odds.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.