2026 Breeders' Cup Friday picks: why Europeans have the edge in the Juvenile Turf races

Key takeaways

• European-based colts have won the Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf five years running, and Aidan O'Brien has won it eight times, including the last four.
• Eight of the 14 Juvenile Turf runners and six of the 14 Juvenile Fillies Turf runners are European shippers, and between them they own most of the Group 1 form in both races.
• How's Al Today (3-1) is the morning-line favorite in the Juvenile Turf, but National Stakes (G1) winner Folsom Blues (7-2) and Great Barrier Reef (4-1) have the stronger form.
• Sun Goddess (6-5) is the class of the John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and the Friday All-Turf Pick 3 links both races with the Juvenile Turf Sprint.

Our 2026 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf picks start with the Europeans. They've won the Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) five years in a row, and they bring the deepest Group 1 form again on Friday, October 30th at Keeneland. The John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) runs at 4:15 PM ET and the Juvenile Turf goes at 5:35 PM ET. The U.S.-based favorite How's Al Today (3-1) stands in the way in the colts' race. Here are the odds, the form and our picks for both turf races.

Naturally, you can bet which horses will win their Breeders’ Cup races at FanDuel Racing. Also, discover 2026 Breeders’ Cup odds and bet the Breeders’ Cup with exclusive bonuses and promos.

Friday juvenile turf race info

• Juvenile Turf Sprint: Race 6, 2:55 PM ET, 5 ½ furlongs on turf
• John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: Race 8, 4:15 PM ET, 1 mile on turf
• Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf: Race 10, 5:35 PM ET, 1 mile on turf
• Track: Keeneland, Lexington, Ky.
• Forecast: Sunny with a high near 76 on Friday, so a firm course is likely.

Race times are subject to change. See how to watch the 2026 Breeders' Cup for every post time and TV channel.

The case for the Europeans

The recent history is lopsided. A European-based colt has won the Juvenile Turf five years running, and European shippers have run first and second in three of the last four editions. Aidan O'Brien alone has won the race eight times, including the last four, and Ryan Moore has ridden seven Juvenile Turf winners. The fillies' race has followed the same path lately: a European won the Juvenile Fillies Turf in each of the last two years and in three of the last four.

Keeneland has been kind to the shippers, too. When the Breeders' Cup was last here in 2022, Europeans won all three Friday turf races, with O'Brien taking both the Juvenile Turf (Victoria Road) and the Juvenile Fillies Turf (Meditate).

The form lines this year back that up. Most of the leading European juveniles met in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (G1) at ParisLongchamp on October 4th, where the filly Amusingly beat odds-on Folsom Blues by 1 ¼ lengths, with Man's Best Friend third, Florida Bay fourth and Avec Toi sixth. Folsom Blues had already been second to Sun Goddess in the Phoenix Stakes (G1). Those are the strongest juvenile races of the year, and the Americans in these fields haven't run in anything comparable.

There is one caveat. The European runners have to adjust to a tighter Keeneland turf course and a two-turn mile, and several of them have never raced beyond seven furlongs. That's where the price matters.

Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf post positions and odds

This is updated as of Wednesday, October 28th. See the full Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf entries, post positions and morning-line odds.

Induction was scratched on Wednesday, and also-eligible Popcorn draws into the field. Program numbers should be confirmed against the official Keeneland card.

Juvenile Turf contenders

Folsom Blues (#10, 7-2): the Group 1 winner

Folsom Blues has the best form in the race. Joseph O'Brien's colt won the National Stakes (G1) at the Curragh on September 13th by six lengths, with Florida Bay third, and his only defeats at the top level came against two of the best juveniles in Europe: Sun Goddess in the Phoenix Stakes (G1) and Amusingly in the Lagardère. "We had America in the back of our minds as well," Joseph O'Brien said after the National. The outside draw is a concern, but at 7-2 he's a fair price for the horse with the most proven class.

Great Barrier Reef (#14, 4-1): Aidan O'Brien's first string

Ryan Moore chose Great Barrier Reef from Aidan O'Brien's four runners. He was unbeaten in his first three starts, capped by a half-length win in the Coventry Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot in June, and was third last time in the Dewhurst Stakes (G1), where he got squeezed. He has never raced beyond seven furlongs, but O'Brien believes he'll stay a mile. Post 14 doesn't scare this barn: O'Brien won this race from post 14 with Hit It A Bomb at Keeneland in 2015 and again with Gstaad last year.

Haffner (#4, 8-1): the proven miler

Haffner is the one European in the top tier who has already won at a mile. He took the Royal Lodge Stakes (G2) at Newmarket on September 26th by 1 ¼ lengths. O'Brien put his loss in the National Stakes (G1) down to the ground: "The ground got soft at the Curragh the last day and it didn't suit him." Firm going at Keeneland and an inside draw suit him, and Christophe Soumillon, who won this race on Gstaad last year, rides.

How's Al Today (#5, 3-1): the American favorite

How's Al Today is 3-for-4 for trainer Riley Mott and won the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile on September 9th in 1:34.84, with Agate third. He's quick, versatile (his first win came on dirt) and drawn well. The question is the competition: he has never faced Group or Grade 1 company, and he's the shortest price in a race full of horses who have.

The rest of the field

• Agate (#13, 10-1): The best of the other Americans. He won the Bourbon Stakes (G2) over this course and distance on October 4th, rallying from the back, and he's improving.
• Man's Best Friend (#11, 15-1): Third in the Lagardère at 13-1 and a Group 2 winner in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. Live underneath at a price.
• Avec Toi (#2, 10-1): The French colt is 4-for-5 and won the Prix La Rochette (G3), but he was sixth in the Lagardère. Blinkers go on.
• Oscar (#12, 15-1): Beaten under a length in the Summer Stakes (G1) at Woodbine for Miguel Clement, with William Buick riding.
• Liam's Law (#8, 20-1): Unbeaten in two turf starts for Todd Pletcher, both on the lead. Front-runners have a poor record in this race.
• Florida Bay (#3), Let Em Know (#7), Popcorn (AE), Pikachu (#6), Sale Shark (#9): Each needs a big step forward. Florida Bay was beaten by Folsom Blues twice.

Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf picks

• Strongest profile: #10 Folsom Blues (7-2). A six-length Group 1 winner whose two defeats came against the best juveniles in Europe. He has the most class in the field.
• Contender: #14 Great Barrier Reef (4-1). Moore's pick, with an O'Brien post-14 precedent. If he handles the mile, he's the main danger.
• Value play: #4 Haffner (8-1). The proven miler in the European group, with a ground excuse for his only bad run and a better draw than the other two.
• U.S. threat: #5 How's Al Today (3-1). The likeliest American to split the Europeans, which makes him a better fit underneath than on top at a short price.
• Longshot: #11 Man's Best Friend (15-1). Third in the Lagardère and a good fit for the bottom of trifectas.

Example Ticket: Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Exacta key: $1 exacta, #10 Folsom Blues and #14 Great Barrier Reef on top of #5 How's Al Today. Two combinations for $2.

Bigger swing: $5 exacta on the same key. Two combinations for $10.

Wider key: $1 exacta, #10 and #14 on top of #4, #5, #11, #13. Eight combinations for $8.

Win bet: $10 to win on #10 Folsom Blues. At 7-2, that returns $45 if the odds hold.

John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf post positions and odds

This is updated as of Wednesday, October 28th. See the full Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf entries, post positions and morning-line odds.

Go For Launch was scratched on Wednesday, and also-eligible Silent Beauty draws into the field. Program numbers should be confirmed against the official Keeneland card.

Juvenile Fillies Turf contenders

Sun Goddess (#9, 6-5): the one to beat

Sun Goddess is the best juvenile filly in Europe and one of the heaviest favorites of the weekend. She has won six of eight starts and her last five in a row, including three Group 1s: the Phoenix Stakes over Folsom Blues, the Moyglare Stud Stakes by 7 ½ lengths and the Cheveley Park Stakes in a juvenile course-record 1:09.08. The question is distance. The Cheveley Park was at six furlongs and Friday is her first try at a mile, but O'Brien isn't worried: "She's very special and she should get a mile easily." He was less happy with post 9, saying, "She is drawn out, which may be a slight disadvantage."

Amusingly (#10, 7-2): the filly who took on the colts

Amusingly owns the best single piece of form in either race. She defeated the colts, including Folsom Blues, in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (G1), and Francis-Henri Graffard supplemented her for this race. Her one blemish is a loss at a mile in the Prix d'Aumale before that, so she has something to prove at the trip, too.

Green Empress (#1, 10-1): the other Group 1 winner

Joseph O'Brien's filly won the Prix Marcel Boussac (G1) on Arc weekend after finishing second, beaten 7 ½ lengths, to Sun Goddess in the Moyglare. She has the rail and proven Group 1 class at a price.

Domestic Agenda (#12, 8-1): the American to fear

If an American wins this race, Domestic Agenda is the most likely candidate. She's 2-for-2 and won the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2) at Belmont by 4 ½ lengths for Chad Brown, who has won the Juvenile Fillies Turf six times, five of them with Miss Grillo winners. Flavien Prat rides.

The rest of the field

• Curracloe (#3, 12-1): Unbeaten in two starts for Johnny Murtagh, including the Darley Fillies' Stakes (G3) on heavy ground. A daughter of Baaeed with upside.
• Serenas Ghost (#4, 20-1) and Vanta (#7, 20-1): Both unbeaten Americans. Serenas Ghost won the Jessamine (G2) over this course and Vanta won the Surfer Girl (G3) at Santa Anita.
• Alwaysanangel (#6, 15-1): Third in the Cheveley Park, but she has never raced beyond seven furlongs.
• Citrus Springs (#8), Seneca Park (#13), De La Renta (#5), Scommessa Sicura (#11), Ballinea Star (#14), Silent Beauty (AE): Longshots who need a career-best effort.

John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf picks

• Strongest profile: #9 Sun Goddess (6-5). Three Group 1 wins and a five-race win streak. The short price makes her a better single in multi-race wagers than a straight win bet.
• Contender: #10 Amusingly (7-2). The Lagardère is the best form in either race.
• Value play: #1 Green Empress (10-1). A Group 1 winner from the rail at 10-1.
• U.S. threat: #12 Domestic Agenda (8-1). Chad Brown's Miss Grillo pattern makes her the American to use underneath.

Example Ticket: John Deere Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Exacta: $2 exacta, #9 Sun Goddess on top of #1, #10, #12. Three combinations for $6.

Trifecta: $1 trifecta, #9 / #1, #10, #12 / #1, #3, #10, #12. Nine combinations for $9.

The Juvenile Turf Sprint leg

The Juvenile Turf Sprint (Race 6) opens the All-Turf Pick 3. Libertango (#3) is the 5-2 favorite for George Boughey with Flavien Prat. She beat Sun Goddess by a length in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and was beaten a length by the same filly in the Cheveley Park, which makes her the strongest form link to Friday's best juvenile. Flying Childers Stakes (G2) winner Final Objective (#9, 8-1) is the European alternative, and Matron Stakes (G3) winner Brickyard Belle (#4, 3-1) is the American to beat. See the full Juvenile Turf Sprint entries, post positions and morning-line odds.

The Friday All-Turf Pick 3

Keeneland is offering a Friday All-Turf Pick 3 covering the Juvenile Turf Sprint (Race 6), the Juvenile Fillies Turf (Race 8) and the Juvenile Turf (Race 10), with a $3 minimum. The races aren't consecutive, so the ticket skips the two dirt races in between, the NetJets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Race 7) and the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Race 9), and it ties all three European-heavy races into one wager.

Example Ticket: Friday All-Turf Pick 3

Main ticket: $3 Pick 3. Race 6: #3, #9 / Race 8: #9, #10 / Race 10: #4, #10, #14. That's 2 x 2 x 3 = 12 combinations for $36.

Sun Goddess single: $3 Pick 3. Race 6: #3, #9 / Race 8: #9 / Race 10: #4, #10, #14. That's 2 x 1 x 3 = 6 combinations for $18.

All-European spread: $3 Pick 3. Race 6: #3, #9 / Race 8: #1, #9, #10 / Race 10: #4, #10, #11, #14. That's 2 x 3 x 4 = 24 combinations for $72.

Payouts are based on morning-line odds; your actual return depends on the final odds at post time. Race numbers and wager minimums should be confirmed against the official Keeneland card. For the dirt side of Friday's card, the Juvenile features 1-1 favorite Hughes, who carries Bob Baffert's bid to break his tie with Aidan O'Brien at 21 Breeders' Cup wins. A win by Folsom Blues wouldn't count toward that record, since he's trained by Aidan's son Joseph. See the latest Breeders' Cup odds for updated prices.

For the full card, see the latest Breeders' Cup odds and every race at Keeneland on FanDuel Racing.

Odds are morning lines from the Oct. 26 draw and are subject to change.

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