2 Best WNBA Bets and Player Props for Aces vs. Mercury in Game 3

Even within a single WNBA game, we've got countless betting options.

You can ride with traditional markets such as spreads or totals or bet on which players will erupt via the player-prop markets.

Which bets stand out for tonight's matchup between the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury?

Let's run through the top options in FanDuel Sportsbook's WNBA betting odds, leaning on advanced stats from the WNBA to help us find an edge in the market.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes via the official WNBA player news wire.

Aces at Mercury Game 3 Betting Picks

Over 164.5 (-106)

The over is 2-0 as Game 1 combined for 175 points while Game 2 reached 169 points. During the regular season, each team finished in the top seven for the most field goal attempts per game. That's translated to the WNBA Finals as the Aces are posting 73.5 field goal attempts per game while the Mercury are averaging 68.5. For reference, both marks would have been among the four highest totals in the regular season.

Much of this is due to quick pace as both squads were among the seven quickest tempos in the regular season and are in the top four for the quickest paces in the playoffs. Despite the over trend, the total hasn't adjusted much at 164.5 for Game 3.

Three-point shooting is another factor that can help keep pushing these totals. Phoenix attempts the second-most three-point shots per game in the playoffs while ceding the most looks from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Las Vegas shoots an elite 37.9% from three in the playoffs while opponents shoot 34.6% from deep against the Aces (second-highest).

This was certainly a factor in Game 1 with the Mercury making 14 of 36 three-point attempts (38.9%) while Vegas converted 9 of 27 looks (33.3%). This took a step back in Game 2 with each squad making no more than eight triples, but overarching team stats suggest three-point shooting should remain relevant.

Both units have solid efficiency through two games with Phoenix touting a 43.8% field goal percentage (FG%) while Las Vegas is shooting 47.6% from the field. Between the pace and efficiency, I expect the over trend to continue. Plus, the Mercury's leading postseason scorer Satou Sabally (18.4 PPG) is expected to play after sustaining an ankle injury in Game 2.

Kahleah Copper Over 17.5 Points (-106)

Plenty of points should mean success for overs in player props, but which lines hold the best value? Looking at Phoenix's offense, Kahleah Copper (16.6 PPG in the playoffs) has excelled with 22.0 PPG while shooting 53.3% from the field and converting 8 of 17 three-point shots (47.1%) in the WNBA Finals.

While negative regression will likely come for her three-point efficiency, Copper did shoot 37.7% from beyond the arc in the regular season. She still has a good shot of staying effective from three -- especially when the Aces are tied for giving up the second-highest three-point percentage in the playoffs.

Furthermore, Las Vegas' two highest defensive ratings in the starting lineup from the regular season are held in the backcourt; guards Chelsea Gray (102.1 defensive rating) and Jewell Loyd (101.2 defensive rating) can be vulnerable targets. Plus, guard Jackie Young has an underwhelming 104.5 defensive rating in the playoffs.

Copper carries favorable one-on-one matchups in this series, generating confidence for over picks. Prior to this series, she posted 13.3 shots per game over seven playoff games. While it's a small sample size of two contests, Copper is averaging 15.0 field goal attempts per contest in the WNBA Finals.

If Phoenix's star guard continues to get increased usage, I'm confident in her efficiency -- drawing my attention to over 17.5 points.

You can also download our free 2025 WNBA playoffs printable bracket to follow along all postseason.

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Which bets stand out to you for tonight's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest WNBA betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.