Leads MLB with 32 home runs in the first half. Playing in his own ballpark, where a win would make him the fourth player ever to take the Derby at home. Made the 2018 final (lost to Harper), first-round exit in 2022. Recent lower back tightness is the one concern.

Runner-up to Cal Raleigh in 2025. At 23, he's chasing the all-time record for youngest champion. Currently the hottest hitter in the sport — 8 homers in his last 7 games, a career-long 463-foot blast, and AL Player of the Week honors.

Elite rookie with the field's best underlying power metrics — 99th percentile hard-hit rate and barrel rate, 98th percentile exit velocity. 13 of his 20 homers this season are "no-doubters." Just three days removed from a hamstring strain that cost him six weeks. Would be the first rookie Derby winner since Pete Alonso in 2019.

A promising rookie power bat making his first Derby appearance. Longer odds reflect the field's overall lack of MLB experience relative to established sluggers like Schwarber and Harper.

A genuine breakout star this season, making his first Derby appearance. Tied with Caglianone as the field's biggest wild card at this price point.

Won it all in 2018 at his then-home Nationals Park, beating Schwarber in the final. Also playing at home tonight. Age 33 means his exit velocity and barrel rate are a tick behind the field's younger sluggers, but he's already closing in on last season's home run total.

51 home runs since the start of 2025 with elite exit-velocity and barrel-rate metrics. A first-time Derby participant — worth remembering the last two champions (Raleigh, Hernández) were also first-timers.

The longest price in the field. A proven veteran bat, but without the standout power metrics or recent scorching form of the names above him.