2 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Jets at Patriots on Thursday Night Football

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Thursday night matchup between the New York Jets and New England Patriots.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Jets at Patriots Betting Picks on Thursday Night Football

Total Over 43.5 (-102)

For as bad as the Jets' offense is, they tend to play in chaotic games. Thus, I'm willing to take the value my model is showing in the over.

Of the Jets' 9 games, 6 have featured 47-plus points. Part of that is their underwhelming defense (which ranks 23rd in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics and now doesn't have its two best players), but the offense also operates at a much faster pace than you'd expect for such a run-heavy team.

The Jets' athleticism at quarterback is also a factor the Patriots haven't faced much this year. Given the Patriots' weakness is at linebacker, I think that could allow the Jets to at least do something offensively. With how explosive the Patriots' offense could be, we don't need much out of the Jets for this total to go over a below-average mark.

Jets Moneyline (+640)

At some point, every bad team can become a value to bet on. I think we've reached that mark with the Jets.

My baseline model has the Patriots sixth in its power ratings with the Jets 29th. My secondary model dings the Patriots more for their inefficient rushing offense (and how run-heavy they are on early downs), but that one also has the Jets a peg lower in 30th.

Bottom line: my numbers do not like the Jets, and they're relatively high on the Patriots.

After giving the Patriots homefield, I have them winning 83.6% of the time, a massive number on a short week in an unpredictable league.

That still leaves 16.4% of the pie to the Jets, and their implied odds at +640 are 13.5%. We may not love it, but that is a big enough value for me to take.

I cannot advise taking the baseline spread at +12.5. There are a lot of scenarios where the Jets get blown the hell out. I want more reward for the risk I'm taking on. That could be via an alternate spread -- they're +164 to cover +7.5 -- but I'd rather reduce my bet size even more, lower that exposure to the Jets, and still benefit from a number that seems bigger than it should be.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.