NFL Week 11 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game

In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.

Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 11's NFL games.

As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.

The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.

Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.

Last updated Sunday at 10:20 am Eastern.

NFL Week 11 Predictions

Jets at Patriots Prediction

Spread Prediction: Patriots -10.7

Total Prediction: 48.0

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Think the model's expectations for the New York Jets' offense are too lofty without Garrett Wilson. Still don't hate backing the over, given how effective the New England Patriots' offense should be in this spot.

Commanders vs. Dolphins Prediction

Spread Prediction: Commanders -1.1

Total Prediction: 46.5

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Even with some key wins recently, I can't get behind having the Miami Dolphins as 2.5-point favorites at a neutral site. The Washington Commanders' defense is horrible and beat up, but I'm still willing to back them here.

Bears at Vikings Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bears -0.6

Total Prediction: 43.5

Betting Odds

Thoughts: The Chicago Bears' offense has been volatile, which is scary as they prepare to face a Brian Flores defense. I think we can exploit that volatility, though. If you think they perform well, you can bet the Bears' spread or moneyline. If you don't, I'm showing value in the under, as well.

Packers at Giants Prediction

Spread Prediction: Packers -7.1

Total Prediction: 45.8

Betting Odds

Thoughts: These numbers are with Jameis Winston starting for the New York Giants. Winston tends to play in chaotic games, so I don't mind taking the value the model is showing in the over.

Panthers at Falcons Prediction

Spread Prediction: Falcons -4.7

Total Prediction: 44.3

Betting Odds

Chargers at Jaguars Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chargers -3.5

Total Prediction: 43.7

Betting Odds

Bengals at Steelers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Steelers -3.6

Total Prediction: 45.5

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Projected 18 mph winds are driving the value I'm showing in the under here.

Buccaneers at Bills Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bills -5.5

Total Prediction: 47.8

Betting Odds

Texans at Titans Prediction

Spread Prediction: Texans -6.0

Total Prediction: 36.5

Betting Odds

Seahawks at Rams Prediction

Spread Prediction: Rams -3.5

Total Prediction: 50.6

Betting Odds

49ers at Cardinals Prediction

Spread Prediction: 49ers -1.9

Total Prediction: 47.8

Betting Odds

Chiefs at Broncos Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chiefs -3.0

Total Prediction: 47.9

Betting Odds

Thoughts: The injuries to the Denver Broncos' defense have me willing to back the over here.

Ravens at Browns Prediction

Spread Prediction: Ravens -6.3

Total Prediction: 38.4

Betting Odds

Thoughts: This is a lot of points for the Cleveland Browns to catch in projected 25 mph winds. I just don't know if I have the stomach to take them.

Lions at Eagles Prediction

Spread Prediction: Lions -1.7

Total Prediction: 48.5

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I've given the Philadelphia Eagles' defense a boost, but the efficiency of the Detroit Lions' offense -- even with no Sam LaPorta -- has me willing to back them as underdogs.

Cowboys at Raiders Prediction

Spread Prediction: Cowboys -4.2

Total Prediction: 47.2

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I've been wary of unders in Dallas Cowboys games this year, but I do think the Quinnen Williams trade could make their contests at least a bit less chaotic.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.