2 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 5/6/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Cleveland Guardians at Washington Nationals

Nationals Moneyline (-104)

Ben Lively of the Cleveland Guardians has a solid 3.72 ERA, but advanced stats suggest regression is near as he carries a 4.79 SIERA and 4.74 xFIP. For the Washington Nationals, Brad Lord has similar concerns with a 4.43 ERA, 4.61 SIERA, and 4.10 xFIP. However, we have an angle for Washington to win outright in this starting pitcher matchup.

Starting with Lively, he's in the 27th percentiles of barrel and hard-hit rates allowed. While the Nationals have some underwhelming numbers -- such as ranking 18th in batting average and 20th in OBA -- they rank 15th in home runs per game, isolated power, and home run percentage. Additionally, Lively's most-used pitches are sinkers (29.1%), fastballs (29.0%), and sweepers (16.9%). Washington struggles against sweepers with the 3rd-lowest runs above average against the pitch but has the 6th and 12th-most runs above average when facing fastballs and sinkers.

Cleveland doesn't have the same advantage today when it comes to pitch usage. Lord leans on fastballs (55.7%), sliders (19.0%), and sinkers (17.1%). The Guardians have the 11th-most runs above average against sliders but rank 20th against fastballs and 18th when facing sinkers.

Furthermore, Lord has a 0.40 HR/9 and ranks in the 86th percentile of barrel percentage allowed. Cleveland has heavily leaned on power hitting by ranking 24th in OBP compared to 11th in home run rate.

After winning three of the last four, Washington can stay in the win column tonight.

Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays

Phillies Over 4.5 Runs (+118)

After allowing only two runs over his first four starts of the season, Drew Rasmussen comes off his two weakest starts of the season, giving up four and three runs. He faces one of baseball's strongest batting orders tonight as the Philadelphia Phillies have the 9th-highest batting average while recording the 11th-most runs per contest.

Rasmussen's pitch usage is led by a cutter (33.6%), four-seam fastball (29.3%), and sinker (24.0%). Philadelphia is in the top half of runs above average against each pitch, led by ranking 2nd against fastballs and 11th when seeing cutters. This feels like a bad matchup all around for the Tampa Bay Rays' starting hurler.

Meanwhile, the Phillies have been rolling -- reaching at least seven runs in four of the past six contests. During that span, Philadelphia is averaging 5.8 runs per game. Home runs have played a big role as Philly launched an average of 2.0 dingers per game during the six-game split. Rasmussen has surrendered one big fly in his last two appearances.

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Which MLB bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.