Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bet for Tuesday 5/6/25

Major League Baseball is a sport perfectly suited for same game parlays.

Not only do we have abundant options across the traditional markets and props for both pitchers and hitters, but plenty of those bets correlate well. Given parlays require all legs to hit, that cohesion is key.

Which SGP stands out to me tonight?

Let's dig into the Detroit Tigers at the Colorado Rockies and lay out where I'm seeing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB SGP for Tigers at Rockies

Leg 1: Tigers Over 5.5 Runs (-106)

The American League-leading Tigers begin a three-game set with the Rockies tonight. Sixth in runs per game (5.1), I'm expecting Detroit to enjoy a fruitful series opener at Coors Field, so we can open this SGP up by targeting the over on the Tigers' 5.5-run team total.

The Tigers' offense has been rolling this season. They're eighth among all teams in xwOBA (.340) and seventh in xSLG (.453), and those strong underlying numbers have translated at the plate. Detroit has gone over 5.5 runs in 16 of their 35 games (47.5%) in total. The implied probability for them to do so at Statcast's top venue for hitting: 48%.

The matchup is good, too, as Colorado is expected to start rookie Chase Dollander. The righty has pitched to 6.48 ERA despite permitting only a .290 BABIP. The quality of contact numbers are downright ugly for Dollander; he's in the 20th percentile for hard-hit rate (46.8%) and the 2nd percentile for barrel rate (18.2%) allowed. In turn, he's allowed four or more runs in three of five starts to begin his MLB career.

The rookie has been even worse against lefties, against whom Dollander's given up a .396 wOBA and 5.20 xFIP. That's another plus for the visitors; the Tigers could trot out upwards of six lefty hitters in this matchup.

But even if Detroit can't get to Dollander, they'll still likely to get a taste of the Rockies bullpen considering their rookie starter's yet to complete a full 6.0 innings. Colorado ranks 26th in reliever xFIP and 25th in reliever WHIP.

Between Dollander and the Rockies' bullpen, Detroit has multiple paths to 6+ runs tonight.

Leg 2: Kerry Carpenter to Record 2+ Total Bases (-145)

If we're on the Tigers to put up runs, that's going to require some baserunners. With a righty on the bump, there's not a Tiger I'd rather put stock into than Kerry Carpenter.

The lefty outfielder has clubbed righties all season, posting a .894 OPS and .388 wOBA in that split. He's struck out at just a 12.9% clip but still has a measly 2.2% walk rate. Carpenter has one of the highest swing rates in baseball, so he'll have plenty of chances to rack up 2+ total bases.

Dollander's lefty struggles should play right into Carpenter's profile. He's allowed a 51.3% fly-ball rate against left-handed hitters while Carpenter has a 55.3% fly-ball rate in that split. As the Tigers leadoff hitter, Carpenter has a realistic chance to get five at-bats against an uninspiring pitcher at the very-best park for hitters. There's a lot working in his favor tonight.

Leg 3: Jackson Jobe over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)

It can be scary to back pitchers at Coors Field, but we're rounding out this Same Game Parlay with the over on Jackson Jobe's 4.5-strikeout prop.

The rookie's season-long strikeout rate is only at 17.6% and the swinging-strike rate is a lackluster 8.7%. He's gotten up to five Ks in only one of his five starts this season but has punched out at least four in three of the last four. Jobe recorded minor league strikeout rates of 25.6% and 32.6% the last two years, so there could be more swing-and-miss potential than he's shown thus far.

We could see some of that unlocked against Colorado. The Rockies have the league's highest called + swinging-strike rate (29.5%) overall and the highest strikeout rate (27.3%) against righty pitchers. Playing at Coors hasn't really fixed that; their 27.2% home strikeout rate ranks second in all of baseball.

At plus odds, this is the kind of matchup I want to buy into Jackson Jobe to round out our SGP.

SGP Odds at Time of Publication: +443

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.