2 Best Bets for Thursday Night Football: Texans at Jets

What is it about New York and primetime games? Week 9's Thursday Night Football matchup features yet another New York team as the Houston Texans pay a visit to the New York Jets. After the New York Giants -- who rank as the 9th-worst team in numberFire's nERD-based NFL power rankings -- played on Monday Night Football, we get to watch another struggling New York team as the Jets are 2-6 and the 14th-worst team in power rankings.

Houston is 6-2 while ranking as the 14th-best team in the power rankings, but this squad is not without its flaws as Nico Collins (hamstring) is on IR and Stefon Diggs (knee) sustained a season-ending injury in Week 8.

With that said, both teams could use some positivity with a win. As the home team, the Jets are slight 1.5-point favorites.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Thursday night game.

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Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Texans at Jets

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Texans Over 20.5 Points (-104)

Over the first five games of the season, the Jets were giving up only 17.0 points per game (PPG). New York has surrendered 28.3 PPG and 5.4 yards play in the last three. For reference, the Jets are surrendering only 4.7 yards per play (second-fewest) on the season.

While New York held the New England Patriots to only 3.9 yards per play a week ago, the red zone defense continues to crumble. In fact, the Jets are allowing a 71.4% red zone scoring rate over the last three games -- this would be tied for the second-worst mark on the season. The huge spike is clear as New York gives up a 57.7% red zone scoring percentage on the season, which is still meh as the 16th-best mark.

The Jets gave up a combined 31.0 PPG over the last two weeks against the Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers. New England carries the sixth-worst schedule-adjusted offense, but Pittsburgh is at least on the climb with the 15th-best offense. Enter Houston, who holds the 19th-best offense and 11th-best adjusted pass offense.

Much of this is weighed down by Houston's run game ranking as the third-worst adjusted unit. However, the Texans are logging 143.6 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry when Joe Mixon is in the lineup. For comparison, Houston averaged 77.7 rushing yards per contest and 3.4 yards per rushing attempt over the three games without Mixon. Backed by 1.07 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) -- per NFL Next Gen Stats -- Mixon's value to this offense has been as clear as day.

Defending the run has been one of New York's biggest flaws, ranking 16th in adjusted run defense, compared to 10th in defending the pass. Before facing the Pats' putrid offense, the Jets gave up 149.0 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry over Week 6 and Week 7.

While Collins and Diggs will be out of the lineup, the Texans should at least have an efficient run game. Plus, Houston boasts the ninth-best red zone scoring rate.

The Jets have some injury concerns on defense, as well. Linebacker C.J. Mosley (neck), safety Tony Adams (hamstring), and safety Ashtyn Davis (concussion) have yet to practice this week. The loss in run support is clear, and being down both starting safeties would only help C.J. Stroud and this thin Houston passing offense.

numberFire's NFL projections have the Texans logging 22.4 points while MasseyRatings is at 23 points. We can get -104 odds for Houston to go over 20.5 points. Considering New York's struggles and what the projection models are saying, I like the over on the Texans' total.

Texans Moneyline (+108)

Despite a 2-6 record while going 2-6 against the spread (ATS), New York continues to feel overvalued in betting markets. This franchise is in flux after firing coach Robert Saleh in the middle of the season. The Jets have lost three consecutive games since the firing while going 0-3 ATS in that time.

With that said, I'm sticking to the Texans theme. Taking Houston to go over its point total -- which is aided by New York's last three totals going over -- pairs well with taking the Texans' moneyline.

We've already laid out where the Texans can find success on offense, and this continues to the defensive side of the ball, too. The Jets' offensive line hasn't had the best stretch during the three-game losing streak. This only gets more concerning with right tackle Morgan Moses (knee) and right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle) questionable.

It's not a great game to have the right side of the O-Line absent as Houston features an exceptional pass-rushing duo in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. According to Pro Football Focus, Aaron Rodgers carries a 64.2 passing grade when under pressure and a 63.9 grade when blitzed. The Texans own the eighth-highest blitz rate, as well.

Houston has a great chance to keep this pass offense under wraps, proven by the league's fourth-best adjusted pass defense. However, defending the run is a worry as the Texans boast the league's 11th-worst adjusted run defense. New York has the fifth-worst adjusted run offense, though, while holding the fourth-lowest run play rate.

The Texans have a few injuries to keep an eye on, too -- mainly linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (79.1 PFF run defense grade). Al-Shaair (knee) has been declared out, but Henry To'oTo'o (concussion) is at least good to go with his 73.6 run defense grade.

Ultimately, Houston has enough advantages on both sides of the ball to take advantage of the Jets' cold streak. numberFire has the Texans winning 22.4-22.0 while MasseyRatings has a 23-20 final in favor of Houston.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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