2 Best Bets for Thursday Night Football: Cowboys at Giants

For the third consecutive week, Thursday Night Football features a divisional matchup. Following three straight AFC collisions, we are moving to the NFC with a clash between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. Hopefully, this time a rivalry will deliver with an entertaining matchup as the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets were 21-point victors in the previous two TNF games.

The storylines are pointing to a competitive contest. The Cowboys are reeling on a two-game losing streak, both of which featured deficits reaching at least 22 points. Meanwhile, the Giants found their footing with a 21-15 win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 3. Dallas is riding a six-game winning streak against New York; will the Giants finally get over the hump on Thursday Night Football?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Thursday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Cowboys at Giants

Cowboys -3.5 1st Half Spread (-105)

If you look at any news surrounding the Cowboys right now, the sky is falling. Despite the back-to-back losses, Dallas still holds +270 odds to win the NFC East and has -110 odds to make the playoffs. The Giants' Week 3 win has not been season-changing by any stretch as they are still +2500 to win the NFC East paired with a 5.5 win total.

Dallas was known for fast starts in 2023, going 12-5 against the spread (ATS) in the first half. That's not been the case in 2024 with a 1-2 ATS record in the first half. In fact, the Cowboys have trailed by an average of 17.0 points at half over their last two contests.

We can't totally ignore Dallas' utter dominance in this head-to-head matchup, though. The Cowboys are 13-1 over the last 14 meetings, and Dak Prescott is 12-2 in his career against the G-Men. Dallas has also led at halftime in six of the previous seven matchups.

As previously mentioned, the Cowboys still have a great shot at the playoffs, while New York is expected to finish at the bottom of the division. I'm trusting in the head-to-head success for Thursday's clash.

While Dak could have another field day against the Giants, the 5.5-point spread is in doubt with Dallas' defensive struggles. Still, the Cowboys could get off to a fast start thanks to Prescott and Co., and the first half spread has more enticing odds (-105) anyway compared to -110 for the 5.5-point game spread.

After posting -0.20 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) in Week 2 -- via NFL's Next Gen Stats -- Dak logged 0.02 EPA/db a week ago. Prescott, who has 851 passing yards, is still plenty capable of tearing up this secondary. The Giants' pass defense has been solid, ranking as numberFire's 13th-best unit. However, New York has faced Sam Darnold, Jayden Daniels, and Deshaun Watson; none of these signal-callers are quite on the level of Prescott, who finished second in MVP voting last season.

Prescott logged 273.5 passing yards per game over his last two meetings with New York, and CeeDee Lamb is averaging 105.3 receiving yards per contest over his previous four matchups with the Giants. This passing offense simply has had the Giants' number. New York is also giving up 5.0 yards per rushing attempt (sixth-most), meaning Dallas' struggling run game (3.6 yards per carry) could finally provide some yards.

The Cowboys had some pretty concerning losses early in the 2023 season, including a 12-point loss against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 and a 32-point loss against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5. Dallas still finished 12-5 a season ago. Don't completely write off this team quite yet; they have the same tools in the passing attack that have consistently shredded New York. Give me the Cowboys to get off to a quick start.

Giants Over 19.5 Points (-126)

While our first pick was positive about Dallas, not everything is sunshine and rainbows. I cannot overlook the Cowboys allowing 29.7 points per game (third-most) and 372.7 yards per contest (fifth-most). Pair this with the Giants logging 19.5 PPG and 322.0 yards per contest over the last two and Dallas' defense could look like a leaky faucet yet again.

New York was putting up only 15.6 PPG (third-fewest) and 280.0 yards per contest (fourth-fewest) last season. The unit is already showing signs of improvement, mostly thanks to rookie sensation Malik Nabers. After becoming the youngest receiver in NFL history to have a multi-touchdown game in Week 3, Nabers holds +300 odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. This came one week after racking up 10 catches for 127 receiving yards in Week 2.

Nabers already looks like a major problem for the Cowboys, who have numberFire's 15th-worst pass defense. After logging the 11th-best team pass rush grade in 2023, Dallas is 19th in the category. Plus, cornerbacks Trevon Diggs (56.5 PFF player grade) and Caelen Carson (57.9 PFF player grade) have been like burnt toast in the secondary. Daniel Jones has also posted 0.16 EPA/db over his last two games, adding to the concern for Dallas' pass defense.

The biggest worry of all is stopping the run as the Cowboys are surrendering 5.4 yards per carry (the worst) and 185.7 rushing yards per game (the worst). Devin Singletary has been a pleasant surprise for the Giants, averaging 0.32 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C), and rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. is seeing his snaps increase after logging 21 snaps and five carries a week ago. The backs have been good enough for New York to find success on the ground.

Between the improving passing game from the Giants and Dallas' struggles to defend the run, going over 19.5 points should be no problem. numberFire's game projections also have New York with 20.8 projected points.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.