2 Best Bets and Player Props for Buffalo vs. Liberty in the Bahamas Bowl

Bowl season is challenging enough with many players hitting the transfer portal as soon as the regular season concludes. With the College Football Playoff expanding, several bowl games have moved into the first few days on January. This becomes an even greater challenge during bowl season as teams playing this late are surely dealing with transfer departures.

That's the case for Saturday's Bahamas Bowl between the Buffalo Bulls and Liberty Flames. While Buffalo has yet to experience any notable transfers, Liberty saw its starting quarterback Kaidon Salter and two starting offensive linemen Jordan White and Xavior Gray hit the portal. With that said, the Flames are heading into this game as 2.5-point underdogs. This contest, which kicks off on Saturday at 11 a.m. ET, is the final bowl game outside of the final three bouts of the College Football Playoff.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, what are the most enticing lines for the Bahamas Bowl?

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Buffalo vs. Liberty Betting Picks

Liberty Under 24.5 Points (-130)

According NET EPA per play, Liberty is the better team, ranking 91st in the category while Buffalo is 117th. However, the absence of multiple starting offensive linemen and Salter should hold a ton of weight. The Flames lean on the run, carrying a 63.7% rush-play rate (top 5%). Salter logged 587 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per rushing attempt this season, and White boasted a 88.3 run blocking grade while Gray recorded a 77.7 run blocking grade, per Pro Football Focus.

For Buffalo, defense has been tough sledding across the board by giving up 29.4 points per game (bottom 35%). However, the Bulls have shown more promise against the run, ranked 84th in EPA allowed per carry compared to 90th in EPA allowed per drop back.

There's a lot of unknown about this Liberty offense headed into this clash, especially with Ryan Burger stepping in at quarterback. Over his three-year career, Burger has attempted only 24 passes, and the inexperienced signal-caller is logging 2.2 yards per rushing attempt in a small sample size this season.

While the Bulls have had their fair share of defensive struggles, they're still in the top half of third and fourth down conversion rates allowed. Liberty also averages 1.4 giveaways per game (top 48% for offense) while Buffalo forces 1.5 takeaways per contest (top 31%). Considering the Flames could get behind schedule with a less effective run game, third down conversions could prove to be an issue. Plus, inserting an inexperienced QB aids the Bulls' nose for the ball.

The absences paired with third down and turnover woes spells a frustrating day ahead for Liberty's offense. The Flames mustered up only 18 points in their most recent outing. Look for Liberty to finish under its team total.

Buffalo -2.5 (-120)

Many bowl games could simply come down to which team has the fewest players sitting out. That's Buffalo by a landslide as only three of its players have transferred so far. Meanwhile, we mentioned the key transfers for Liberty, and leading rusher Quinton Cooley (1,254 rushing yards) is expected to sit out.

The Flames' rushing attack is essentially bare bones, which should make scoring a tall ask. Fortunately, most of Liberty's starting defense is expected to be on the field. The most notable absence will be linebacker Jerome Jolly Jr. -- who is second on the squad with 55 tackles.

Finishing in the top 5% of rush-play rate, yards per carry, and rushing yards per game, the Flames strength across the board has been running the ball. When this entire unit is in question, Buffalo looks like the clear side to back.

Liberty's defense hasn't been anything jaw-dropping, ranking 97th in EPA allowed per play, 95th in EPA allowed per rushing attempt, and 84th in EPA allowed per drop back. Similar to the Flames, the Bulls lean on the run with a 57.1% rush-play rate (top 22%). Liberty gives up over 150 rushing yards per game and will be without one of its top linebackers. Plus, the Flames are worse against the run when it comes to EPA.

Along with winning the run game, I like Buffalo's chances of controlling the turnover battle. The Bulls rank 32nd in turnover margin while Liberty is 56th in the category.

The Flames are even 3-8 against the spread (ATS) this season, and the Bulls have won four straight games while going 3-1 ATS.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.