3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Sunday Night Football: Vikings at Lions

We could have probably tossed out the entire rest of the Week 18 slate if it meant we get to keep this one.

For the first time in NFL history, two 14-win teams collide in the regular season on Sunday as the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions battle for the NFC's top overall seed, leaving huge implications of a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs on the line.

Oddsmakers are expecting a tight game; the Lions are 2.5-point favorites, and this game's 56.5-point total is gigantic.

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out as the Vikings take on the Lions on Sunday Night Football? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Sunday Night Football Best Player Prop Picks

Jahmyr Gibbs Under 87.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

My colleague Jim Sannes had this same idea on Monday. I love the thought when everyone and their mother -- surely -- is betting Jahmyr Gibbs' overs in a lead role without David Montgomery (knee).

That just ended up not being the right spot.

The San Francisco 49ers have crumbled to numberFire's 27th-ranked schedule-adjusted rush defense, and their issues ended up allowing Gibbs to bust a couple of big ones on the way to 117 rushing yards. The Vikings are nF's very best rush D. Game on.

Minnesota just doesn't allow big days to tailbacks. They've only allowed five 70-yard rushers all season, including bottling Josh Jacobs to just 60.0 yards per game in two meetings. Gibbs is one of the exceptions, but he needed a 45-yard scamper to get there.

Likely in every parlay imaginable, this line has stayed stagnant since opening. I gave it out in our Week 18 NFL expert picks on Friday.

FanDuel Research's Week 18 NFL DFS projections have Gibbs at just 83.1 median yards. Expecting Minnesota to win the game, I'm trusting the Vikings' rush D over the talented back as they collide.

Aaron Jones Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Gibbs' negative matchup is one thing. Aaron Jones is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum.

Injuries to the Lions' defense have made for a Charmin-soft unit against the run in recent weeks. Detroit has allowed the seventh-most Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry over the last five weeks (0.13), and they've plummeted to the 22nd-ranked unit overall against the rush, according to nF.

With that the case, I'm expecting Minnesota to unleash Jones, who has seen his workload scaled back in recent weeks. Jones' 0.14 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/c) is still 25th among NFL qualifiers and putting Cam Akers (-0.26) to shame.

Minnesota has just tried to manage their oft-injured running back where possible, but with all the chips -- and a bye -- potentially on the table, I'm expecting a heavy dose of #33.

Our projections are, too. They forecast Jones for 61.6 rushing yards on Sunday.

Sam Darnold Anytime Touchdown (+410)

My colleague Jim Sannes and I both love this under, so that makes finding a touchdown prop showing value kind of difficult.

If you want to attack this market, Sam Darnold might be the best place -- which sounds hilarious given a single rushing TD this season.

However, in addition to the likelier chances Darnold will put his body on the line for the division and top seed, he's used his legs this season far more than this number implies. He has 64 runs -- most of them scrambles -- for 202 yards, producing 1.3 expected touchdowns, per Pro Football Focus' expected fantasy points metrics.

In a game projected to be high-scoring where both teams are looking to minimize risk, a quarterback sneak at the goal line could be more of an option for the Vikings than normal. Only the Cincinnati Bengals have a higher passing-to-rushing touchdown ratio than the Vikings (3.88) this season.

We've got Darnold projected for 0.23 rushing touchdowns at a median, which implies roughly +386 odds for one. This bet doesn't cash often, but it is showing value. Wager wisely.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.