World Series Game 5 Best Bets and Player Props for Dodgers at Yankees
Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.
From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees
Dodgers ML (+122)
While it's still likely too little, too late for the New York Yankees, they finally punched back in the World Series on Tuesday night, earning an 11-4 victory in front of a raucous home crowd to force a Game 5.
The season-saving win gives the Bronx Bombers some much-needed momentum and renewed confidence entering tonight, particularly with their ace Gerrit Cole taking the mound. Los Angeles Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty has looked vulnerable this postseason, as well.
Despite all this, being able to nab the Dodgers at plus money to close the series feels like good value.
Although Cole has a 2.82 ERA across his four playoff starts, he hasn't been as dominant as that number would suggest. Underneath that ERA lies a less inspiring 5.18 xFIP, and his 17.0% strikeout rate is well below what we saw in the regular season (25.4%). He's also given up just one dinger off of a 54.2% fly-ball rate this postseason, leaving him with an unsustainable 2.6% HR/FB rate.
On the other side, Flaherty hasn't exactly been lights out with a 4.95 xFIP and 15.7% K rate over his four playoff outings, but he was solid in Game 1 and also pitched seven scoreless innings in one of his NLCS starts. While we probably should still have tempered expectations for the right-hander, the main takeaway is that the Yankees might not have quite as much of an advantage between the two starters as recent results would imply.
Additionally, should Flaherty not be at his best, the Dodgers will have their full arsenal of bullpen arms at their disposal due to long reliever Landon Knack nailing down four innings in last night's bullpen game.
Offensively, the Dodgers have been the better team in these playoffs across several metrics, holding an advantage over the Yankees in wRC+ (117 to 111), ISO (.199 to .174), and strikeout rate (19.6% to 22.0%).
numberFire's game projections see the Dodgers winning 53% of the time while Massey Ratings is showing a 54% win probability, further pointing to these odds being solid betting value tonight.
Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+470)
If the Dodgers win the World Series, Freddie Freeman will almost certainly be awarded MVP after homering in all four games to this point, and backing him to slug another one out might feel like we're pushing our luck.
And yet, despite his barrage, he still has just the sixth-shortest odds to hit a dinger tonight and will have the platoon advantage against a fly-ball pitcher who's due for home run regression.
Freeman has rarely struck out this postseason (12.0%), and he's pummeled the ball for a 50.0% hard-hit rate and 11.9% barrel rate. Particularly with Gerrit Cole not generating as many punchouts lately, Freddie is in a great spot to launch another ball into the outfield seats.
If you're hesitant to bank on Freeman keeping up his World Series home run streak, Max Muncy is a viable alternative. Muncy is +430 to hit a home run and boasts a 44.4% hard-hit rate and 18.5% barrel rate in the playoffs. He's also capable of taking advantage of Cole's fly-ball tendencies at appealing odds.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.