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Women's World Cup Betting: Colombia Set to Win Group G with a Win on Thursday

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez•@nickvaz

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Women's World Cup Betting: Colombia Set to Win Group G with a Win on Thursday

Thursday sees the final matches of the group stage before we get down to the high-stakes knockout round.

Group H was turned on its head last time these teams took the pitch as we saw two stunning upsets. That leaves these teams in an interesting position as we move forward.

Here are the games, with all World Cup odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook:

Time (Eastern)
Home
Draw
Away
6:00 AMMorocco (+550)+220Colombia (-185)
6:00 AMSouth Korea (+1400)+600Germany (-600)

Morocco vs. Colombia

Morocco came into the tournament ranked 72nd by FIFA. That had them ahead of only Zambia among all teams that qualified for the World Cup.

That made their victory over South Korea in their second match quite surprising. South Korea is all the way up 17th in the rankings. Not many people would have expected that result after Morocco lost 6-0 to Germany in their opening game.

Perhaps the most impressive takeaway from Morocco's victory was that they didn't sit back after they scored in the sixth minute. They had more expected goals (xG) than South Korea, 1.4-1.2, according to FBRef.

Colombia pulled off an upset that may have shocked more people than Morocco's did. Germany looked unstoppable in their opening game, but Colombia beat them 2-1. This has the Colombians in first place in the group and looking to take the top spot.

It's fair to say Colombia rode their luck in that win over Germany. They created just 0.4 xG but managed to score two goals. Germany had 1.7 xG if you include their penalty kick, which ended up being their only goal.

Motivation won't be an issue. There is a huge incentive to winning the group -- it would set up a game against Jamaica instead of one against France. Colombia looks to be a bit better than their FIFA ranking of 25th suggests.

Linda Caicedo scored in the last match for Colombia, giving her a goal in each game. She's arguably Colombia's most talented player, and we can look to back her to score once again. A Same Game Parlay of Caicedo to score and Colombia to win pays out at +399 and is well worth considering in this match.

South Korea vs. Germany

South Korea has to be considered one of the more disappointing teams in this tournament thus far. They came in with +100 odds to make it out of the group and now require a miracle to get to the knockout stage.

They would need to beat Germany by four goals and have Morocco lose against Colombia to advance. Considering South Korea are currently +1500 to win the game, there seems little chance of said miracle happening.

South Korea has yet to score a goal in the tournament, although they have created a total of 1.8 xG. They are probably a bit better than what they've shown at the World Cup so far, but they now face their toughest test.

Germany lost their match against Colombia despite having 67% possession and winning a penalty. They created fewer than one xG from open play in that match after recording 2.4 xG against Morocco.

It will be difficult -- but not impossible -- for Germany to win the group. They need to win and have Colombia lose to Morocco. They'll want to do that to avoid France in the first round of the knockout stage, so Germany will be going all out.

This game could see some goals. Germany is deadly in attack with Alexandra Popp netting three goals in two games. South Korea needs to score often to have any hope of making the next round, which could also leave them exposed at the back.

Over 3.5 goals is listed at +162 and is definitely an interesting way to approach this match. Popp to score at any time is -125, which isn't too bad of a number considering the form she is in.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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