3 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Lakers at Warriors on Christmas Day

NBA Christmas Day games are here, headlined by a clash between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors.

Although the Lakers-Warriors' 8:10pm ET tip-off is the primetime slot, it's just one of the five NBA Christmas Day games slated for December 25th, 2024. For a full list of NBA Christmas Day betting odds or to find out how to watch Christmas Day NBA games, see here.

Let's dive into the Lakers-Warriors odds via the NBA betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to identify Christmas Day's Lakers-Warriors best bets and player props.

Lakers at Warriors Betting Picks

Over 225.5 Total Points (-110)

These are different Lakers and Warriors teams than last season, but the cores are similar. Across four regular season meetings in 2023-24, the division rivals totaled 289, 238, 249, and 254 total points. Now, this year's teams are just 20th and 14th, respectively, in scoring, but I still think this is the right kind of matchup to look toward the over.

Since LeBron James joined the Lakers, he and Stephen Curry have matched up head-to-head 11 times. Eight of those 11 cleared 225.5 total points, with an average total of 237.6.

Now, the Warriors aren't a joke on defense, ranking eighth in defensive rating and fourth in opponent field goal percentage. But they're just 11th in scoring defense, in large part thanks to their eighth-ranked pace.

LA doesn't play as fast as Golden State, but they're also a noticeably worse defense. The Lakers are 18th in scoring defense and 21st in defensive rating, and they've permitted the seventh-high opponent field goal percentage.

And while neither side has especially lethal offensive numbers on the year, there's still plenty of firepower in this matchup. Extra possessions could also be imminent considering the Warriors' fast pace of play.

numberFire's NBA game projections project 233.24 total points in this one, expecting it to go over 65% of the time. That, coupled with the history between these sides and Golden State's blistering pace, is enough for me to back the over.

LeBron James to Score 25+ Points (+125)

LeBron James has been a reliable source of points on Christmas Day throughout his career. Across 18 games on Christmas, James is averaging 26.5 points per game. He's scored at least 25 points in 11 of those, clearing 35 points in two of the last three Christmas Day games.

He's also coming into Wednesday's date red-hot, scoring 32 and 28 points over his last two games. That puts him in a nice spot to score at least 25 points, available at +120 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook as of Tuesday afternoon.

James is averaging just 23 points per game on the year, but we've seen a big difference in his scoring load based on the opponent's pace. In seven games against the 10 fastest-paced teams, LeBron is averaging 26.7 points on 18.7 shot attempts -- up from the 21.1 points and 17.4 shot attempts James has averaged against teams outside the top 10 in pace.

This is a pace-up spot for the Lakers (17th in pace) with the Warriors playing at the eighth-fastest pace

The Warriors are also just a team he's faired very well against the last few years. He's scored at least 30 points in five of his last six matchups with Golden State, including all three last season. As such, this is a prop I'd be interested in laddering up with some alt. lines, albeit with a smaller bet amount than what I allocate toward 25-plus.

LeBron James to score 30+ points is +340, while James to score 35+ is +800.

Buddy Hield 3+ Made Threes (+130)

On the Golden State side, it can be difficult to pinpoint who exactly is going to shoulder a major offensive load on any given night. The Warriors have seven different players averaging at least 20 minutes per game -- not including newly acquired starter Dennis Schroder.

Schroder's arrival has relegated Buddy Hield to the bench, but that hasn't stopped the sharpshooter from lighting things up from distance. Hield has drained at least 3 threes in two of three games with Schroder in the lineup -- right in line with the 3.1 made threes he's averaging on the year. Against a suspect Lakers defense, that helps me see value in him to make at least 3 threes at +130 odds.

Now, LA has been a good three-point defense, permitting the seventh-fewest three-point attempts per game. But they're allowing a pedestrian 36.5% three-point field goal percentage on the year, and those low attempt numbers can be partially attributed to LA's slow pace of play.

Hield's been largely unaffected by the top three-point defenses, anyway. In nine games against teams in the top 10 for three-pointers allowed, Hield has averaged 3.2 made threes and shot 43.9% from distance.

He's drained at least 3 threes in 14 of 28 games this season, including three straight home games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.