5 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Christmas Day

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

Today's Best NBA Bets and Player Props

San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks

Josh Hart Over 24.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-120)

The San Antonio Spurs and New York Knicks will kick off the Christmas Day festivities at Madison Square Garden. Josh Hart is the gift that keeps on giving -- both for the Knicks and his backers -- so let's look for him to achieve north of 24.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA).

On the season, Hart is averaging 27.4 PRA and has exceeded 24.5 PRA in 64.3% of his competitions, up from the 54.5% implied probability on these -120 odds. He's fared even better on his home floor, netting 28.5 PRA and clearing 24.5 PRA in 9 out of 13 games at MSG (69.2%).

Based on those hit rates alone, it's easy to be drawn to the value at this line. A friendly matchup against San Antonio is the icing on the cake.

The Spurs (16th) and Knicks (27th) each play at a timid pace. Slow-paced games have been beneficial for Hart's counting stats. He's averaging 28.7 PRA and has eclipsed 24.5 PRA in 75.0% of games (12 out of 16 contests) against teams that rank in the bottom half of pace.

To add, the Spurs are defensively weak at the forward position. They are coughing up the most points, rebounds, and assists per game to opposing forwards.

Although the Knicks are favored by 9.0 points, it would be of no surprise to see these teams go down to the wire on a slate where effort is typically more emphasized than a normal regular-season game. Hart is already playing the fifth-most minutes (36.8) in the NBA and the lack of blowout potential should ensure he sees plenty of run in this one.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks

Timberwolves +5.5 (-112)

The Minnesota Timberwolves (14-14) and Dallas Mavericks (19-10) will square off for a Western Conference Finals rematch.

The nature of this rematch has been watered down with Karl-Anthony Towns out of the fold, and so too have the Timberwolves. The questionable decision to offload KAT's salary has left Minnesota with a .500 record heading into Christmas Day.

However, I think the Wolves are slightly undervalued in this contest. The offense (23rd) may be sputtering, but they check in with the sixth-best defensive rating in the league, leaving them in a good spot to go blow for blow with the Mavs.

Luka Doncic and Dallas hate to see a good defense coming their way. They are 6-5 against the top 10 defenses in the league but tout a 13-5 record outside this split.

Second chance points could help energize Minnesota's offense. Rudy Gobert is always good for an o-board and Dallas is surrendering the sixth-most second chance points in the league. The Wolves also have four key players -- Mike Conley, Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, and Jaden McDaniels -- who are due for positive three-point regression based on their long-term shooting averages.

Anthony Edwards' game doesn't need any fixing and Julius Randle leads the way in offensive rating. Those other aforementioned players are primed to get going against a Dallas D that suffers from having two defensively uninterested stars, paving a path for Minnesota to stay alive in this one.

Mike Conley Over 13.5 Pts + Ast (-118)

Conley is averaging 13.0 combined points and assists (PA) per game and has cleared 13.5 PA at a 54.2% rate -- nearly identical to the 54.1% implied probability on these -118 odds.

However, we can spot a potential market inefficiency using an advanced split.

The Mavericks (7th) and Timberwolves (24th) operate at vastly different paces. Conley is averaging 15.9 PA against teams that rank in the top 12 of pace and is netting just 11.6 PA outside this split.

He's exceeded 13.5 PA in seven out of eight games (87.5%) versus teams that fare in the top 12 of pace.

As mentioned, Conley is also due for positive three-point regression, netting 0.2 made threes below expectation per game.

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum 5+ Made Threes (+185)

Made threes haven't been a rare commodity for the best player on the team that shoots a whopping, league-leading 50.4 three-point attempts (3PA) per game.

Jayson Tatum is averaging 4.0 3PM and has drained at least 5 trios in 42.3% of his games this season. These +185 odds imply only a 35.1% probability.

Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics will take on the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers run at the second-slowest pace in the league, which helps explain why they are letting up the third-fewest shot attempts. However, they're surrendering just the ninth-fewest 3PA, meaning a large portion of their allowed shots are coming from behind the arc.

Notably, Tatum has drained at least five threes in 50.0% of his games against the ten slowest teams in the league. Further, Tatum has nailed a nickel's worth of trios in 50.0% of his contests against teams that rank outside the top 12 in defensive rating.

Derrick White Over 19.5 Pts + Ast (-104)

Derrick White is averaging 21.7 PA and has notched over 19.5 PA in 82.1% of his games this season.

That hit rate would translate to -460 odds but it's listed at -104 odds (50.9% implied probability) as of this writing. Enough said?

I've been going back to the well on Derrick White for some time now and am pleased we can find him in yet another seemingly undervalued spot.

If you're worried that Philadelphia's snail-like pace could bog him down, do not fret. White is averaging 22.2 PA and has exceeded 19.5 PA in 88.9% of games (eight out of nine contests) against teams that rank in the bottom 10 of pace.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.