WNBA Best Bets and Player Props for Tuesday 7/16/24

The WNBA season is rolling along, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Connecticut Sun at New York Liberty

Sun Moneyline (+138)

The New York Liberty (20-4) and Connecticut Sun (18-4) sit atop the WNBA standings, with the former holding a 1.5-game lead over the latter for first place.

New York touts a 107.7 offensive rating (best) and a 95.8 defensive rating (fourth-best), good for a +11.9 net rating (best). Connecticut, meanwhile, owns a 103.0 offensive rating (third-best) and a 93.4 defensive rating (second-best), which makes up a +9.6 net rating (second-best).

The Liberty have been the best regular-season team, but the metrics tell us that the Sun aren't too far behind. New York, however, has reigned supreme in their head-to-head matchups with Connecticut, going 2-0 and claiming a seven-point and three-point victory.

I expect the Sun to finally get over the hump tonight.

Connecticut outshot New York by 11 and 10 field goal attempts (FGA) in their first two meetings and still lost both contests. I'm choosing to take this as a good sign for tonight.

The Sun are awesome at forcing their opponents to play at a slower-than-normal pace and in turn outshooting them from a volume perspective. They haven't run into any issues maintaining that style against New York. The problem? The Liberty happened to be draining shots in both contests against the Sun, leading to a pair of victories despite a more muted shot volume.

New York went 28-for-57 (49.1% FG%) and 31-for-60 (51.7% FG%) from the field in these games. Connecticut struggled with a 35.8% FG% and 40.8% FG% in this split.

Sure, the Liberty have better shooters on their squad, sporting a 45.3% FG% (best) on the season to the Sun's 43.8% FG%, but the gap in shooting clips shouldn't be as brutal this go-around.

We've got some pretty key injury news out of New York, too. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (knee) will not play tonight, Breanna Stewart (rest) is questionable, and backup starter Kayla Thornton (neck) is questionable.

Laney-Hamilton sports a monstrous +18.3 net rating, the best mark in the WNBA, so her absence cannot be understated. I'd consider backing Connecticut's +138 moneyline odds even with a clean injury report for New York, but the value looks that much better with Laney-Hamilton on the sidelines.

Add in a potential sit for Stewie and Thornton, and New York could be very short-handed in this one. I'll back Connecticut to go into the All-Star break with a bang.

Chicago Sky at Las Vegas Aces

Sky +13.5 (-112)

The Chicago Sky (9-14) will meet up with the Las Vegas Aces (16-7) tonight, and I'm keen on backing the hefty underdog.

Las Vegas has won 11 of their last 13 games, serving as the most dominant team in the league in that stretch. It's no mistake that they've gone 10-1 since Chelsea Gray returned from injury, and the Aces are in a position to claim a three-peat with +145 WNBA Championship odds (shortest).

However, even with Vegas playing their best basketball of the year, they've still won 7 of their last 11 games by just 12 points or fewer. Blowouts aren't easy to come by in the WNBA.

The four games in that split in which Vegas won by 12 or more points all came against teams that struggle with a -5.4 net rating or worse.

Chicago, meanwhile, has a -3.1 net rating on the season. That's by no means an excellent mark, but they are an average enough opponent to keep tonight's game within 13 points.

Angel Reese has shot the Sky in the foot across their last two games. Reese has gone 8-for-22 from the restricted area (36.4% FG%) and 0-for-5 from the paint (non-restricted area) in this span, averaging a 26.6% FG% on what are mostly high-percentage shot areas.

But Reese was chasing a double-double record, looking to expand her historic streak to 16 games. Now that it's been snapped, I expect Reese and company to hone in on more quality shot selections.

Things could get funky in this one as Vegas' core four looks ahead to the impending All-Star break where they will participate in the Olympic Games. We're getting a lot of points here, so I'll back Chicago to dodge a total blowout.

Chennedy Carter Over 5.5 1st Quarter Points (+116)

Since securing a spot in Chicago's starting lineup, Chennedy Carter has scored over 5.5 points in the first quarter in 10 out of 11 games.

To receive +116 odds (46.3% implied probability) on something that has hit at a 90.9% rate (10 out of 11 contests) seems like a total gift.

Carter has been averaging 7.3 first-quarter points in this span and has a great matchup tonight.

The Aces play at the fastest pace in the WNBA. They surrender the third-most first-quarter points in the league. We should see an up-and-down game that grants both teams plenty of shot attempts, so I'll take the plus-odds to side with what has been a typical scoring occurrence for Carter.

Chelsea Gray Over 8.5 Points (-128)

Last season, Gray averaged 15.3 points via a 49.0% FG% and 42.1% 3P%.

While she's made plenty of playmaking and defensive contributions through 11 games this year, the scoring just hasn't been there.

Gray is averaging 7.3 points off of a sour 37.7% FG% and 24.0% 3P%.

The Aces don't need Gray to put up big numbers on the scoring end for them to succeed, but I'm sure they'd like to see her bounce back in the final game before the month-long break.

She's gone 3-for-17 from the field across her last two games and has shot below 25.0% from the field in four of her last seven games. These shooting struggles are beyond uncharacteristic for the six-time WNBA All-Star.

As 13.5-point favorites, the Aces have room to give Gray the green light as she looks to see her shot fall, and Chicago's guards are pretty meh on defense.

All customers get a 30% Profit Boost for any wager on any WNBA game taking place on July 16th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more WNBA betting opportunities? Check out the WNBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.