Fantasy Football Week 1 Weather Report

Weather can have a big impact on fantasy football, for obvious reasons.

If you're playing in a monsoon, your offense will operate differently than it would in the cozy indoors. Thus, it has to be at least a part of our process.

But we also have to be careful not to overreact. Even adverse conditions don't mean you should abandon ship on a particular player; you just have to downgrade appropriately.

That's what we'll be trying to do here throughout the season. We'll go through games with noteworthy weather and outline what it means for your season-long and daily fantasy rosters.

Luckily, Week 1 is giving us a bit of a break. Only two games currently have projected wind speeds above 10 miles per hour, and only one is likely to feature rain.

So, let's dig in and see how we should alter our approach within those games.

All forecast info comes via Weather Underground unless noted otherwise. Check out numberFire's Games and Lineups page to see all updated forecasts.

Impactful Weather for Fantasy Football in Week 1

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

Current forecast: Projected wind speeds of 17 miles per hour

We're pretty used to seeing wind here, and it's very much a factor as the Buffalo Bills host the Arizona Cardinals.

Projected wind speeds around kickoff are 17 miles per hour, and they stay elevated throughout. Anything above 10 miles per hour is noteworthy, and this game easily clears that.

The Cardinals, obviously, are the team more impacted by this, given they play their home games indoors. You're still likely starting Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride in season-long unless you have the world's deepest roster.

For the DFS main slate, this pushes Murray below both C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson for me, forcing him to instead battle with pocket passers like Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, and Matthew Stafford in games that currently have higher totals.

The Bills require less tweaking. Although none of their home games last year had wind speeds above 10 miles per hour, they did play at home in elevated winds in Weeks 5, 10, and 14 in 2022. They scored 38, 31, and 20 points, respectively, in those games, and Allen threw for 424, 330, and 147 yards (that latter game was played in heavy rain).

This keeps the Bills status quo for season-long, and I'm fine remaining high on them in DFS, as well.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

Current forecast: Projected wind speeds of 14 miles per hour

The total for the Dallas Cowboys versus the Cleveland Browns has come down from 42.5 earlier in the week, and I'm still a bit below market with my model putting this game at 40.0. It's due in large part to the wind.

If I lower the projected wind speed in this game to 0, my model would put the total at 42.42. A 2.4-point decrease isn't a killer, but it's absolutely noteworthy.

The Cowboys are already a team that tends to lag a bit on the road. Dak Prescott has a 6.17 ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt, which includes deductions for interceptions and sacks) on the road during the Mike McCarthy era, down from 7.75 at home.

That's not a big enough downgrade where you consider benching CeeDee Lamb in season-long (assuming he is activated), but with most other pieces here being fringe-starters-at-best, you can give extra consideration to alternatives.

The wind also means I'm not super inclined to consider any Cowboys in DFS, both due to weather but also the matchup.

Similar to the Bills, this is more the norm for the Browns. Thus, you don't need to alter your outlook for them too drastically. The pause there comes more from general questions about the offense under Deshaun Watson than the weather.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current forecast: Projected afternoon thunderstorms

This is another total that has budged down as it was at 43.5 yesterday.

I'm actually showing value in the over now, though, and I don't think it should alter the fantasy outlook for the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers much.

Rain can matter in fantasy, but it typically needs to be a downpour to truly move the needle. I tend to care more about wind, and that's currently projected at just 5 miles per hour.

Thus, for season-long, unless the forecast gets worse, I think you can keep things status quo here.

For DFS, if others overreact to the rain, it could lower roster rates on intriguing pieces such as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jayden Daniels. You don't necessarily need to go out of your way to target these players, but their appeal as pivots for tournaments has the potential to increase.

Other Weather to Monitor

• Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins: Current wind speed projections are 9 miles per hour. I wouldn't alter much until that goes up a couple of ticks.
• Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears: Current wind speed projections are 8 miles per hour.
• Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants: Current wind speed projections are 8 miles per hour.
• New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers: Current wind speed projections are 8 miles per hour.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.