Wimbledon Second Round Betting Picks: Wednesday 7/3/24

Perhaps the most revered of the four Grand Slams, Wimbledon is underway this week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the fortnight, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Wimbledon Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which second-round matches could have the most betting value on Wednesday.

Wimbledon Best Bets

Jannik Sinner vs. Matteo Berrettini

Sinner Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+116)

Jannik Sinner remains the betting favorite to lift the trophy at +210 odds to win the Wimbledon title on FanDuel Sportsbook, but he could face some adversity in the second round against fellow Italian Matteo Berrettini.

While injuries have plagued Berrettini the last couple of seasons, he's a dangerous player on grass, reaching the Wimbledon finals in 2021 and entering the event with a robust 80% career win rate on grass courts. Despite the missed time and being ranked just 59th in the world now, it's telling that the 28-year-old still owns Tennis Abstract's 4th-best raw grass Elo rating and 12th-best surface-blended rating.

A late start to his 2024 campaign has limited Berrettini to just 15 matches this season (11-4 record), but he's still managed to win a clay title at Marrakech and, more recently, was a finalist on grass at Stuttgart before falling to rising British star Jack Draper.

Sinner needs no introduction as the heavy favorite, coming into this match with a 6-0 grass record this season after securing a title at Halle, and he's 39-3 overall in 2024. Both Tennis Abstract and Massey Ratings align in projecting roughly an 83% win probability for Sinner.

However, despite all his success, he hasn't had the smoothest run on grass so far. In those six grass matches, Sinner has dropped a set in four of them, and even in the two straight-set wins, he needed a tie-break in three out of the four sets. Historically, this is arguably Sinner's most unproven surface, too, as he entered the event with a 68% career win rate, which is his worst of the three surfaces.

Given the radically different paths these two have taken to get to this encounter, it's very hard to see Berrettini doing enough to earn the upset. But his excellent history on grass suggests he should be able to give Sinner enough trouble to steal a set, which makes this wager an intriguing option at plus odds.

Tommy Paul vs. Otto Virtanen

Paul 3-0 Sets (-120)

Tommy Paul has enjoyed a 7-1 record on grass this season, which includes nabbing a title at Queen's Club, his first career grass title and second of his 2024 campaign.

On paper, the world No. 13 shouldn't have much trouble taking out Otto Virtanen. Virtanen is barely ranked inside the top 150, and including his first-round win on Monday, he's played just two Tour-level matches this season (the other being a loss at the French Open).

Given his ranking, Virtanen needed to go through three qualifying matches to get into the main draw, and it wasn't exactly straightforward as he would require a pair of three-setters to get through the first two qualifying rounds, followed by a four-set win in the best-of-five third round. All three of his opponents were ranked 142nd or higher.

In the main draw, Virtanen did win in straight sets in his first-round match over Max Purcell, but Purcell has a losing record this year (10-16) and was on a short turnaround following a seven-match run (including qualifying) at Eastbourne directly before Wimbledon.

Tennis Abstract forecasts a win for Paul 94% of the time while Massey Ratings projects a 90% win probability. It all lines up for a straight-set win for the American, which would send him into the third round for the third straight year at Wimbledon.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.