Williams: 4 NFL Future Bets Showing Value Entering Week 18
The final week of the regular season is on the horizon, but it's not too late to take advantage of the betting markets before the postseason. Week 18 has some great storylines and scenarios that shape up great opportunities to get action before the game's kickoff.
Here are four of the best value bets I'm finding on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Buffalo Bills to Win the Super Bowl
Odds: +950
The Buffalo Bills are the scariest team right now in the AFC, and they have a ton to play for in the final week of the season. A win versus the Miami Dolphins would give them the AFC East for the fourth time in four years -- and the 2 seed for the AFC playoff picture.
This feat didn't seem plausible heading into Week 13 when the Bills were 6-6. Since then, they have won every matchup on their schedule. Entering the season, this team was the third favorite to hoist the Lombardi in February 2024 with only slightly more favorable odds than the current line.
They have solid ingredients for a winning recipe: playmakers on offense and defense, solid coaching and scheme, and -- potentially -- an opportunity to host a couple of playoff games in the Wild Card and Divisional rounds.
The Bills are 9-2 against the Dolphins in Josh Allen's tenure in Buffalo, so with everything shaping up in the Bills' favor for Week 18 and beyond, I don't think we'll get a better number for this team to win the Super Bowl the rest of the way.
Houston Texans to Win the AFC South
Odds: +410
Regardless of how things play out in Week 18, this year for the Houston Texans has been nothing short of amazing. They are one season removed from a 3-13-1 record and now have a shot to play for a playoff spot on the road versus the Indianapolis Colts.
C.J. Stroud is likely the Offensive Rookie of the Year (-850) despite missing two games this season, and the Texans will lean on his prowess to get them into the dance.
The reason I'm eyeing this bet is that Trevor Lawrence is truly questionable for Sunday's road visit to Tennessee. Mike Vrabel has been incredible in his career (24-14-2 against the spread) as a home underdog of at least three points.
The Titans are receiving 3.5 points ATS in this one, and Vrabel has alluded to the Titans needing to come out and play to win this game. If Lawrence can't go, the Jaguars are in trouble.
Of course, the Texans need to handle business a day prior for this bet to have a chance, but should they get the win over the Colts, I like their chances to win the division come Sunday.
Philadelphia Eagles to Win the NFC East
Odds: +750
How the mighty have fallen...
Week 18 presents the Philadelphia Eagles with quite a predicament. This team had the 1 seed in the NFC all but locked up heading into their matchup in Week 13 versus the San Francisco 49ers with a 9-1 record. Losing four out of their next five games has flipped that on its head. They now need a division rival, the Washington Commanders, to beat Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East.
The Cowboys took care of the Commanders handily earlier this year, but all five of Dallas' losses have come on the road where they'll find themselves yet again in the season finale.
There has been so much turmoil with the Commanders that many feel they'll just lay down on Sunday with an impeding coaching change coming, but Dallas has disappointed in many spots like this before.
The Eagles have work to do of their own, but at close to 8-to-1 odds, the value is there.
Baker Mayfield to Win Comeback Player of the Year
Odds: +1000
This is essentially Damar Hamlin's award to lose, and that is how it was viewed coming into the 2023-24 season. All that essentially needed to happen was Hamlin coming back to play in some way this year.
While he has done that, it's only amounted to a total of 17 snaps. The last time he saw the field was December 17th against Dallas, and that was only in the form of one snap. Hamlin had come down significantly earlier in the week (closer to 2-to-1 odds) and now sits back at his usual spot of -450.
Joe Flacco(who has only played in five full games) is second with +350 odds. On Wednesday's Covering The Spread, I mentioned that I don't know how you can give this award to a guy on a non-division winner who didn't play a full season.
It's a good story, but Baker Mayfield has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fighting for the NFC South -- a situation very few predicted in the preseason. He wasn't even thought to be the starter for this squad most of the offseason. Mayfield will need a surefire statement game in Week 18 to have a chance to take home hardware here, but at 10-to-1 odds with Hamlin's stock fleeting, I'm willing to take that chance.
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